I have a park pass for MK on 12/24 but we have dinner reservations at HS. It’s H&V and a fantastic dining pkg. what are my chances of being able to hop to HS? I’m contemplating just changing our reservation to HS for 12/24 since we have MK on 12/25 anyway. But I don’t want to waste the park hopper 
Extremely high. And even if, for whatever reason, HS would fill up to “capacity” and they close off entry…Disney has typically done a “tiered” approach. That is to say, they might stop some people from entering, but not others (such as those with existing reservations, etc). I’d be shocked if they would block you from entering with a package that you paid money for, even if they were filled (which it is unlikely, since it has happened like once, ever, since APRs went into effect).
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Just a point there. You don’t pre-pay for a dining package.
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And also no dining every guarantees entry (but it does factor in for that tiered closure Ryan references)
For OP’s purposes, I wouldn’t be particularly worried about not being able to hop
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Point taken…although you would be charged if you don’t show up, so it comes to the same end, I suppose.
It would be interesting if they used that tiered approach if they did need to restrict numbers.
Obviously they used to.
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