Overestimating crowds?

Not to look a gift horse in the mouth as I’m planning a Sunday day trip to Epcot to get my Daisy magnet, but it seems like the calendar has been widely off these last few days. Could it be a matter of lesser than anticipated Spring Break crowds?

I think this week only. I don’t think any schools are on break now. They will be next week and the week after though.

Our spring break was last week. Districts all over the US take different times for spring break. The county next to us always has theirs the week after Easter. I don’t know that anyone can really have a pulse on which week is the most popular for spring break.

I was there last week for our spring break, and most days had crowd level increases at the last minute - so you never know. This year, I think there has been a much larger spread of spring break weeks with the late Easter weekend.

Actually, the TP statistics guys do. IIRC there was a blog post a few years back about how they gather data from school districts across the country to help determine the Spring Break effect.

ETA: The difficult part is then determining correlations between this data and the CLs. Some districts have a bigger effect than others, based on size, population demographics, proximity to FL, etc.

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Yes, I remember hearing about that on the podcasts as well. I think I remember them saying that they used data from the countries largest school districts and used that in their models.

The higher predictions this week have not panned out. The CL are coming in much lower however it still feels rather busy in the parks. Today there were a lot of large groups of kids. Not sure what that is about. Also s lot if people from the UK this week. Whats up with that UK liners?

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There are a lot of school trips this time of year, as well as several cheer and dance competitions going on at WDW. I know there is one May 4-5 weekend, and we head there the 8-13 for DD’s cheer competition.

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We noticed a lot of people from the UK at the parks when we were there last week too.

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School holidays in the U.K. started (mainly) last Friday 5th and end the Tues after Easter. Some schools had the week before off and go back on Monday.

I figured it was something like that, thanks

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Yeah, seems like high schools. This week it does not appear to be dance or cheer. Those i can usually recognize.

Grad nights. Many of the local schools here in NJ sent their seniors off this week. We don’t end school until late June, so this is the time the senior events start. (Senior trip, prom, etc.)

Next week is April vacation for most of New England. We almost made plans to go to Disney a few months ago for this time. Then quickly decided that was a terrible idea!