New era COVID/Delta/50th Anniversary and Hedging Crowd Bets?

Walt Disney World
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Stressing out, trying to hedge my bets toward a lovely visit during 50th Anniv (I turn 50 with Disneyworld-yay/fun!). Help with thoughts/advice, please.

Would like to go during the 50th Anniversary, but
-no desire to go during that actual Oct Anniversary (crazy crowds totally outweigh “fun” )
-am really averse to shoulder to shoulder crowds (not interested in Christmas and super scared about Easter)
-am really averse to summer heat (not interested in summer 2022…just too miserable June-Sept)
-am limited by daughter’s school breaks (HS 11th grader can’t afford to miss more than, let’s say 3 days?)
-want a longer trip so that we don’t have to pack things in/stealth speed, but the only way to do longer is maybe Easter break which then has terrible crowds (crowds=misery/bad moods/too much struggling). WHY do I read that Easter is the 2nd busiest time and yet the crowd predictions aren’t bad at all on April 7 8, 9, 10 and not bad April 15, 17 (actual Easter) and 18th? Why doesn’t it already predict 9 and 10s? Makes me tempted to do Easter despite reading everywhere how busy that time is.

I’ve been in February (loved it, but can’t take daughter out of school for so long this time), November (again, it was a longer trip and now daughter doesn’t have a week off in her school system), and went last October 4 nights (pretty hot, but we had a great time cuz 2021 COVID times were still not super crowded).

I have a reservation for Easter 2022 and can’t decide whether to cancel it (9 days) and go for 4-5 nights later in the month. My worry is that if we go later in the month, crowds will still be bad and without FPP, it’s too much time in lines and not relaxing at all.

What would you do? What am I not considering? Seems as though the general consensus is that FPP isn’t coming back so what is expected to play out with rising crowds, lack of cast members/capacity, bigger crowds? What’s the consensus about where things are moving and what the new experience will generally be this upcoming 2022 winter/spring?

THANKS in advance! Can’t wait to hear your thoughts. Haven’t been on here to read much in the last several months so am looking forward to getting caught up. As I write all of this, I suppose I’m leaning to a shorter trip outside of holidays.

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Hi, when does your daughter go back to school after Christmas break? I have two girls in elementary school and based on how the calendar falls, they are going to be off the week of January 3 so we are going that week. Still will be crowded but not the same as Christmas week crowds and temps will be nice and cool! Could you go that week? If not, what about around Martin Luther King Day or President’s Day? It will be crowded but temps are nice and I’m guessing it’s not as crowded as Easter over those holidays. We do much better dealing with crowds when it’s not super hot out so we’re looking forward to going in January.

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I thought the general consensus was that FP would be coming back in some capacity (though unknown when and to the extent it will look like the former FP+). My guess is that by April 2022, there will be some form of FP system.

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Easter is pretty late in 2022, so it doesn’t overlap with spring break season (late March and early April seems to be the peak of spring breaks) as much as normal. Late March/early April Easter is probably much more crowded than when Easter falls in late April.

I’d look at historic crowds around Easter in 2019 (April 21) and 2017 (April 16) to see what’s happened in the past.

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Good idea. Thanks!

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Unfortunately she goes back right after the 1st so that’s kind of “out”. I appreciate the perspective on the MLK/Pres weekends as less crazy than Easter. That’s a great thing to consider!