Need help with my math

So I need help with my math. I am planning a trip for June 2019 for a party of 5 and thinking of upgrading one Park ticket to an Annual Pass (mine, of course :grin:).
We are booked for 12 nights and have 10 day PH+ tickets. I haven’t added MM to my package but know I will. Haven’t booked my ADRs yet but plan on at least one TS each day with many character meals planned (taking DGD9). We are also big shoppers - by the end of the trip I will have seen every item in every gift shop on the property.
My math shows that I will have to save more than $245 on meals and shopping to break even with an AP. Based on a minimum 10% discount I shouldn’t have a problem doing that but have a question -
Do you get discounts on the dining packages, like for F! And ROL?
Am I forgetting something important in my calculations?
I do have my DH’s support in the upgrade (I am pretty sure he realizes it might mean we will “have” to plan another trip before it expires :grin:).
Thoughts.

My initial thought was “why not upgrade everyone to an AP pass?” We did this last year and haven’t looked back. We save on almost every table service meal, in the stores, and special ticketed events like MNSSHP. If you will have a car, then having an AP will help as well. I say go for it!!!

Before deciding, compare the cost/discount potential to buying a Table in Wonderland card. It may work out better.

Tables in Wonderland would be a great deal except I am not eligible for one - not a DVC owner or Florida resident :frowning:️

But now we’re adding the TiW card cost to the formula :grin:
@dianelynn , will let you know later if you are my new bff or a bad influence

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Oh there’s no need to wait, I can tell you now. I’m totally a bad influence. Hopefully that also makes me your best friend. :wink:

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No - no annual pass discounts on F! or ROL packages unfortunately. We did both and I specifically tried as I did exactly what you did with upgrading one of us & then hunting discounts. You do get AP discounts on any tours or Disney After Hours, etc. so that can help as well.

I never tried to run the exact math after, but my feeling is worst case we broke even and I think we did save a few bucks by upgrading the one. Do remember you have to be present (and need ID) for anyone in your group to take advantage of the discount - generally not a big deal, but if your spouse goes off to shop, you will need to show up for the discount & you’ll want that if they buy a lot.

The best deal would be if you had 2 trips planned and could just squeeze them under 1 year and just get everyone APs. We’re hoping to do that for '19 & '20 if we can time out the vacations just right…