MK FPP drops during the day - a theory

Walt Disney World Touring Plans
1

I know there is no set times for MK FPP drops like the other parks. But I am a software consultant and created a little program to ping FPP reservations to test out any patterns. Now my program is more of a prototype and my data, while neat to look at, should not be considered at the same quality level as Lines.

However, I did notice a pattern and was curious if anyone else noticed it too or perhaps could test out a general theory. I am going to be soon blocked from making more FPP because my trip is coming up and all the days will be filled.

  1. Short form of the theory: On the "3"s. That is minute 00, 03, 06, 09…51, 54, 57.

  2. Long form, there are certain “3” times that seem better than others. In terms of ranking, here are the TOP 11 times

  • 11:06
  • 11:45
  • 11:09
  • 10:42
  • 10:39
  • 10:57
  • 10:51
  • 14:00
  • 11:07
  • 11:51
  • 9:15

Some notes: I polled the FPP system typically for same day with ranges of morning, afternoon, and evening. This was run during july and top of august. I tried to be consistent, but I just monitored it from the side -not super actively (e.g. security timeouts, logins are not automated). I polled for 10 people. The time above just meant I tended to always get 3 available times per attraction. So that means that the time had the most FPP returning (over multiple days, polling)

Please note: I am able to get FoP with 10ppl for SDFP.

Long data form:
Over all my polling, here are all the FPP I recvd. Perhaps that might help in your choosing. I noticed for a while Philaharmagic was not putting out FPP. Spoiler I never got 7DMT

AttractionName FPP Count
“it’s a small world” 34017
Dumbo the Flying Elephant 33606
Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin 32574
Under the Sea ~ Journey of The Little Mermaid 32519
Mad Tea Party 31427
Pirates of the Caribbean 31146
Monsters, Inc. Laugh Floor 29475
The Barnstormer 28546
The Magic Carpets of Aladdin 26265
Jungle Cruise 25906
The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh 22767
Haunted Mansion 16283
Tomorrowland Speedway 10917
Meet Rapunzel and Tiana at Princess Fairytale Hall 6892
Meet Cinderella and Elena at Princess Fairytale Hall 5803
Meet Ariel at Her Grotto 5740
Enchanted Tales with Belle 5141
Meet Tinker Bell at Town Square Theater 3737
Peter Pan’s Flight 1237
Mickey’s PhilharMagic 1052
Splash Mountain 723
Big Thunder Mountain Railroad 669
Space Mountain 115
Meet Mickey Mouse & Minnie Mouse at Town Square Theater 0
Seven Dwarfs Mine Train 0

Open to comments, feedback, thoughts. I know this wasn’t scientific, but more of an exercise just in case a true pattern emerges.

22 Likes
2

This is fascinating thanks for sharing! Would love to see some more testing with times.

3

And just to clarify the FPP count list. The top of the list means there was ALOT of FPP always available. So IASW is super easy to get on the day of, which corresponds to FPP recommendations that you don’t need a FPP beforehand for that. Could easily make FPP like 10-15 minutes before you ride it.

Going down the list to the end, Space Mtn is the “hardest” to find on the day of. BTMM/Splash are pretty hard as well,

So that you know, I based my personal FPP selections almost entirely on this list.

2 Likes
4

This is really cool. I hope Len sees your post - having reliable stats on SDFP availability would be super helpful in planning.

5

Very cool, I’m tagging my cousin @ejj because he absolutely loves this stuff.

6

Fascinating. I think the biggest surprise for me is the availability of Buzz Lightyears, and the unavailability of Meeting Mickey. Definitely bookmarking this. Would be very interested in what @len may have to say.

7

Very cool, thank you!