Received an email with updated crowd number of “8” for both Disneyland and California Adventure on Thursday May 28th. Friday shows crowd levels of “2” for both parks on the 29th. How can a Friday be less crowded (and that much so) especially with Friday being a grad night? Hoping someone can give me insight to this as I was looking to avoid a Fri./Sat./Sun and a grad night to beat the crowds but crowd calendar is showing otherwise.
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I cannot for the life of me figure out why that Friday should be a 2. It has pass holder block outs for SoCal Select while Thursday does not (and blockout dates can make a huge difference, but usually not just one tier of AP), but otherwise it’s an outlier that week. I wouldn’t make any decisions based solely off that data point.
For one thing, the pricing tier for Friday is higher than Thursday (meaning Disney thinks it’s a high demand day). Also as you mentioned, there is a Grad Night Friday, which can cause an influx of guests at both parks during the day since lots of these kids have APs or otherwise just take the opportunity to spend the whole day at the resort, even though only DCA has the grad event after hours.
However, neither day should be unreasonably crowded so I would just go when it fits your schedule and follow a TP and get MaxPass. You can have an enjoyable visit no matter the crowds.
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Welcome! Ask anything & often!
Be aware that these CLs are not definite until about 60 days out. (Really until about 45 - 30 days) Right now they are just using historical data for 2018 / 2019.
Also, sometimes that far in advance they are just using the historical data from that calendar date and not adjusted for the day of the week.
For example, you’re asking about a Friday, that day was probably a Wednesday in 2019. So you might see a CL2 because this year that “date” was midweek. When they update the calendar in April / May 2020 they’ll adjust for that date being on Friday this time.
I love TP but any CL # that is more than 60 days out I no longer trust. Wait and see… it’ll fluctuate. TP only updates about 60 days in advance and copies & pastes the previous year’s historical info into the farther away future dates
FYI – A common misconception about Touring Plans Crowd Levels is that they are an indicator of the number of people in each park. However, they are an indicator of average queue waits at the rides in that park during 11am – 5pm.
A CL 1 can feel like a CL 4 in terms of park capacity, but the queues may be moving quickly. Conversely, you can be in a CL 9 park that feels like a CL 5 because the streets aren’t packed. However, all the queues are super long.
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I’ve seen this mentioned several times, but I really don’t think that it is true as it is a simple (and obvious) adjustment. Perhaps @len or one of the stats guys can weigh in about this, as well as the OP’s specific date question.
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I started monitoring this and observed data from TP for nearly two years starting in late 2017 that drew me to this conclusion. I’d love to get an official answer. I’ve reached out and asked Fred, Steve, Brain and Len before in multiple ways, e-mail / social media / these forums, and never gotten any answer / response.
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I’ve kind of noticed this too. We’re there May 1-3 and the CL according to TP are 8, 10 and 9 (6/9, 10/10, 8/10). But when I look at the previous dates that are closest to those dates over the past 3 years, it’s been nothing like this. I’m anxious to see whether it updates to something more in line with historical data or if there’s a reason behind the scenes that I don’t know about causing the large CL for this post-spring break, pre-graduation night weekend.
| Date | DL Overall | DL | CA | Pass exclusions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, May 3, 2019 | 4 | 3 | 7 | SL |
| Fri, May 4, 2018 | 5 | 5 | 5 | None |
| Fri, April 28, 2017 | 6 | 6 | 6 | None |
| Average Friday | 5 | 4.7 | 6 | |
| Sat, May 4, 2019 | 8 | 8 | 8 | SL SC DX |
| Sat, May 5, 2018 | 6 | 7 | 6 | SL SC DX |
| Sat, April 29, 2017 | 8 | 8 | 8 | SL SC DX |
| Average Saturday | 7.3 | 7.7 | 7.3 | |
| Sun, May 5, 2019 | 5 | 4 | 9 | SL |
| Sun, May 6, 2018 | 6 | 6 | 7 | SL |
| Sun, April 30, 2017 | 7 | 6 | 9 | SL |
| Average Sunday | 6 | 5.3 | 8.3 |
It’s even easier to see the “day of the week” issue when you compare slower months like February & September. It really stands out when you look at the CL at 300+ days in advance. They do begin to adjust them slowly closer to 200 - 180 days out. Then they are up-to-date at about 90 - 60 days out.
I’m not trying to be argumentative or “trolling”, but I’ve asked so many TP reps about this and no one even replies. (They still haven’t here either) 
As mentioned earlier, it is a pretty easy / obvious adjustment that doesn’t seem to get done in a timely manner. Since no one at TP has even denied it over the last seven months that I’ve been contacting them for confirmation - (I checked my sent e-mails & DMs for dates) - I’m led to believe the data I’ve seen backs up my hypothesis. I’d be fine with being wrong if I got confirmation.
I also feel confident in saying the DLR CL calendar doesn’t get updated nearly as often as the WDW CL calendar. I totally get that as by sheer volume of posts here that WDW is the priority for ppl using Touring Plans.
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Another couple of things to consider is: a) DLR is a “local” park and several variables can adjust the CLs on a whim (ie, celebrity sightings, new merch, etc.). I have taken numerous last minute trips to DLR and while I am sure that there are a few who would do the same at WDW, but those are most likely the exception, not the rule b) some time this summer they will be opening Marvel Land. Perhaps this is influencing the CLs and will probably adjust accordingly once they know the exact opening dates.
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