hi, I’m chiming in late here, but are they complaining about the in-the-moment estimates being off, or the predicted estimates when originally planning the trip? I’m currently planning a trip to Universal for April and the wait times seem incredibly low to me. Like 2 minutes for Doctor Doom? 16 for Revenge of the Mummy? We are typically Disney people, is the Universal standby situation really that much better?
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When I created my April trip, express pass seemed to be a default. Did you check that?
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No that was definitely turned off. I’m seeing the same thing for the Magic Kingdom plan I just made. Showing a 7 minute wait for Tiana’s at 9:37. That seems impossible.
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Did you see this post?
You should optimize in the morning.
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I mean, we could be wrong. Let’s look at the data.
Here are the recent user-submitted waits using Lightning Lane at Tiana’s:
- 6 minutes on 2026-01-13 at 10:53 am (posted was 15)
- 14 minutes on 2026-01-07 at 1:57 pm (posted was 65)
- 6 minutes on 2026-01-04 at 12:32 pm (posted was 40)
- 20 minutes on 2026-01-02 at 3:19 pm (posted was 75)
- 10 minutes on 2025-12-26 at 1:53 pm (posted was 65)
We didn’t have any timed LLs from Dec 27-31 - I checked.
It’s probably helping that the merge point for Tiana’s is at the top of the cave entrance, so you’ve got maybe a hundred feet or so until you get to the ride:
For that reason I’m a little suspicious of that 20-minute actual wait. Moving 5 feet per minute is like 3 people/minute, or a ride capacity of around 180 guests per hour. The ride normally handles around 1,400/hour, or 23 per minute. (How do we know that? We’ve count people exiting the ride for years.)
I think having Big Thunder down means fewer folks are using LL at TBA for now, since there’s nothing else in Frontierland. That’s just a hunch.
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That and the weather. Florida is temperate but still. I’m not riding it mid November through mid March.
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Right, makes sense to me the wait times for Tiana’s are low right now, but our trip is in April (last time we went in April it was over 90 every day.)
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I’ve never done standby, even when it was Splash. 90 mins is too long! If I want to get wet that badly, I go stand in front of the camel by the carpets, lol.
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I think we’ve updated the UOR wait times in the last couple of weeks, if you want to re-run that plan.
Happy to take a look at the data.
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Re: should we put 75%…
No. Too complicated imho. Most of us love data but are not stats majors. 
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