January 23 - 30 crowd jump

Hey guys… I consider myself a WDW veteran and was pretty surprised when I just saw the week of January 23 to 30 jump from 2 to 6, with Hollywood Studios as high as 9 in Satuday, January 30. What am I missing? Everything I’ve read indicates that this should be one of the least crowded weeks of the year.

The same thing happened last year and I could never get an explanation why. The projected levels dropped back about a month before our trip and the crowds were mostly low that week. There were tour groups but they did not affect our waits.

TP has a good article kind of explaining some of this.

So far out predictions are pretty rough estimates - they don’t have enough info to be that accurate.

So will my estimates update once when official park hours are released and a second time at the next semiannual refresh, or only once at the next semiannual refresh?