It’s honestly always been a matter of math - as long as you are taking everything into consideration (which it sounds like you have) then you’ll find the best match for you. For me I often don’t automatically renew my AP, basically depends on my schedule. Sometimes I have 12-14 days per cycle ( I have to have park hopper and any park i want on any given day) and then I might have a 8 month lapse before my next group of vacation. Past few times I’ve ended up down three times on a pass for about 21 days total.
My last renewal I went from a premium (had to be there over actual xmas - never again thank goodness) back to my DVC Gold because i have at least 14 days this cycle with a possible extra 6 again. But after that Gold AP expires I probably wont need tickets to WDW again until almost a year later.
As for the DDP - it never makes sense for me… I don’t do character meals, and rarely do i eat an app, entree, and dessert during one sitting (too old i guess). Also the amount of planning to make sure it’s “worth” it isn’t my thing (pick the $7 snack not the $4 snack, etc).