Is optimize broken - this seems highly unrealistic for HS rope drop

I built this touring plan for HS rope drop and clicked optimize and I really don’t believe this 17 min wait for rise. . . And it isn’t suggesting any Genie+? This is my first time trying to use this in a while so it could be user error. Any thoughts?

https://touringplans.com/plans/5136338/printMy

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This is what I get when I click the link:

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Can confirm, my optimized TP for HS was super unrealistic. I tried it yesterday and there was no way this would happen. If you were at the very front of the rope drop crowd (be in line about an hour before early entry?) you could probably get a very small wait for your first ride (not taking into consideration the hour wait to get into the park) but all consecutive waits will be longer.

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Can’t view the plan. Do you have early entry? I was in HS on Saturday, February 24th and Rise was a 15 min wait during early entry. Slinky was 30 min.

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I do have early entry - not sure why the link isn’t working but here is a screen shot

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There’s a weird dip in the predicted wait times for Rise:

I’ll alert the stats team to get it fixed. The wait should be much, much higher. Sorry about that @raina_murdock. I’ll update here when it’s fixed.

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FYI - To share a link to a touring plan, you have to do all three of these steps:

  1. Click “share plan”
  2. Toggle the switch for “Publish this plan?”
  3. Copy the URL to clipboard and paste where you want to share.

People often forget step 2 so the plan is not viewable to others – just to you.

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I’ve been able to do something very similar to this on some days! You do have to be among the first in line for MMRR, and TSM sometimes builds a longer wait in the morning but depends on crowd levels. ASS is usually pretty short wait in the first 30 minutes or so the park is open.

Curious what the CL was predicted vs. actual.

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It was anticipated 5/10 and actual 6/10.
MMRR wait was 30 minutes around 10 minutes after EE and ASS was 20 min wait 20 minutes after EE. If I’d waited about hour before park opening to be at the front of rope drop and gone straight to MMRR, I’m sure a 3 minute wait would have been feasible, but by the time we would have arrived at TSMM, the wait was already 20 min long (shout out to whoever input that time at 8:52) so already the TP was out the window right there.

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Not that I think 20 minutes is technically a long wait, but definitely longer than an optimized TP is showing!

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I did do step 2 - but maybe didn’t recipe the link after - anyway all good - thanks!

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Thanks @len for this and for all you’ve done to make our vacations awesome :slight_smile:

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@raina_murdock This should be fixed now. When you have a minute - no rush - please let me know how it looks on your end. Thank you for mentioning this!

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Thank you - here is what i see now after optimizing

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I am struggling with my HS plan as well. It seems to feel I can RD TSMM then head over to ROTR and ride it twice back to back within an hour.Custom Touring Plan: KTMO HS RD

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I had a similar problem with optimized plans I made over the last couple days for MK and HS. The predicted wait times were wildly off actuals…to the point that the plans it suggested were ultimately useless. And it wasn’t just off in one direction. For MK, the wait time estimates were much higher than actuals. But for HS, the wait time estimates were much lower than actuals.

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Same. I tried for a MK plan and it was all wackadoodle too. Didn’t try the other parks yet. Maybe @len should know predicted times are still crazy.

This is not the fault of TP…but something I was keenly aware of this trip was how much G+ has broken things at Disney.

Essentially, now, with so many people using G+, people are effectively always waiting in TWO lines at the same time…one, the “virtual” line while they wait for their LL return time, and the other the standby lines they get into in the meantime. This drives up the standby line waits even more, because instead of that body being in a single line, they are filling the “lesser” queues at the same time. This is further driving up standby wait times.

Apart from slower times of the year, I think the only real “strategy” to save time in lines if you don’t want to pay for G+ (which we do NOT) is to arrive for ETHE and rope-drop and hit as many rides as you can during those early hours. After that, crowds grow, and wait times don’t seem to fluctuate very much, apart from when rides go down. (Not an absolute, but in generality.)

It used to be that a “good Touring Plan” can save you a lot of time. I’m just not finding that’s true any longer.

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Totally get that G+ has really messed with SB line and also made it super difficult for predictive software to, well, predict anything.

I have been making a non-G+ TP to find the worst hot spots and then adding in G+ with the intention of getting LL for those lines that I find untenable either because I hate the queue or because I am trying to fit in an ADR, etc. We only go once a year or so and for short trips so I am wiling to pay for G+. And I can work it pretty well with BG1.

But no amount of LL/SB line conflict should lead to the software predicting riding ROTR twice at 9am with super short waits. My MK plan had a 20 minute SB wait for 7D in the middle of the day. Those things just simply aren’t going to happen.

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How about this optimized plan I created last night? 2024-05-26 Epcot EE and EEH

Rope dropping international gateway at 8:00 only to make a beeline to Reflections of China, which doesn’t open until 8:30. Then circle back to Remy to enjoy the hour wait. Followed by 83 minutes of free time. :rofl:

What is happening?