A couple of questions I’ve been wrestling with that relate to what I’ve been reading here about TP planner underestimating wait times:
a) Can the waits reported on the Disneyland app Tip Board be relied on more than the TP autoplanner? I can definitely believe the ATPs may not tend to be accurate (particularly for DLR, with less data to work with) - but some of the replies here also point, understandably, to the wait time & return window data reported on the Disneyland Mobile app - so how reliable do folks find those numbers to be?
b) What about the times for the Indiv. LL rides (RSR, ROTR)? If the Tip Board shows these as being available to purchase most of the day with nearly immediate window start times, is that what’s really the case in the parks? The Tip Board is showing far SHORTER waits via ILL than the TP ATP predictions. At least one of these isn’t giving me a picture reflecting the likely “ground truth” - what are people observing in real world experience? Are the individual LL return times really so available thru much of the day? If they are not, I need to plan very differently than if they are.
I am planning a DLR trip right now as well. I’ve been noticing inaccurate times on TP’s DLR plans. It was told to me, by multiple people here, that TP isn’t really great at giving accurate waits at DLR these days. They put their focus on WDW as it generates 90%+ of their traffic.
I’m making plans not using G+/ILL to see what those standby waits are like. Then trying to see if that’s accurate by following along on the DLR app. At least I’ll know I can get those done and when I actually use Genie+ that I’ll be able to do more than planned. Not great planning, but better than just “winging it” I guess!
B) the ILL RT are usually pretty immediate except for VERY busy tourist days (Christmas week). For Rise, there will often be a faster progression in the am and then slow down in the afternoon, meaning at say 9:30 am the RT could be noon, but at 2pm the RT could be 2:15.
Most of the time, yes. The only times I’ve noticed Disneyland app having potentially inflated waits is near the end of the day. If you’ll be staying until park close and there’s a ride you’d like to do and it’s listed at longer than a 30 minute wait, I’d cross-reference the TP app but not the plan, there’s a screen where the TP app will list all attractions, the posted wait time by Disney and the expected wait based on their suggestions. Those actually tend to be a lot closer to accurate than any plan I’ve generated in the last 4-6 months (for Disneyland). So you could use those expected waits to cross-reference between the two apps, but again, the only time I’ve noticed Disneyland’s app not being accurate is that end of the day.
If it’s not exactly close, it’s not too far off. They are charging for these and they do want to limit guest service lines by making it a good experience so if there is any discrepancy, it’s usually not by much. And I believe (not 100% sure because it’s been awhile since I got my last ILL at WDW and we’ve never done it at DL), you’ll know your time before you confirm the purchase so it’s not a situation where you’re set to select 9:30-10:30am and then it jumps up to 1 or 2pm like (as you can sometimes see with G+ selections for WDW’s most popular attractions). It’s a lot less stressful in the morning too, except as mentioned on the heavy tourist weeks like Christmas and Spring Break.
I’m doing something pretty close to this - printed out my current draft plan and am playing make-believe, following along the plan timeline and checking wait times from the DL App Tip Board at the corresponding times. Okay, takes time to do this rigorously ahead of time, but it helps assess and reduce the more expensive risk of not finding out until we’re in the park that reality is far off from the plan. So far, so good (and the current crowds should be higher than our planned visit).
Some of my favorite planning has been playing along with a plan to the app! The best way to do this is to look at a day with similar hours and operating schedule/pricing.
Thanks, BR2K - makes sense. Recognizing the limitations of TP’s estimates, not to mention the potential, even near-certainty, of unpredictable occurrences, outages, etc., I’m doing a lot of pre-planning focusing on getting mornings close to “right” with rides where staying ahead of the crowds is key, then stepping off the gas pedal in the afternoon, doing things with less timing sensitivity (with a little help from G+ where it may help). Also trying to plan for key strategic use of ILL to get us an RSR ride after dark, which is why the drastic difference between what the TP autoplanner predicts for return windows vs what the official DL app is saying, and then there’s ThrillData.com and at least one other “live wait times” page I’ve come across. So I much appreciate your perspective in assessing where the “ground truth” is - I know I’ve seen your BellesRose2K handle around Lines for as long as I’ve been looking at it, so your advice has a good deal of weight behind it.
I do like using the TP autoplanner for what it gives me - but I also know not to put too much trust in its predicted waits, especially as the day goes on (the military planning adage is “no plan survives first contact with the enemy” - and that is a useful mindset with Disney park planning, I think…
Thank you, lolabear - your thoughts are reassuring as I just try to pre-assess the available planning data (preferring not to gain that understanding by the “learn it the hard way” approach in precious real time after entering the park). I don’t need (or expect) for the times to be precisely accurate - just need the overall behavior to be relatively representative of the crowd dynamics and the times to be somewhere in the ballpark.
One thing I’ve pondered is the difference (and resulting impact) between DL offering LL and ILL times only on a “next time available” basis vs. what I understand the WDW method is). Don’t know if this is still the case but it seems like anecdotally the windows seem to get later faster and run out sooner at WDW, with the different dynamics possibly resulting from the differing distribution protocol.
And extending that logic, I might argue that the TP autoplanner for DL seems to be implemented to predict windows based on the WDW system rather than the DL one (perhaps explaining why it tends to generate return times that seem way off, especially for ILL, but also G+ LL to some extent).
Have to say if I’m right about what’s behind the different system behavior, I certainly prefer the way DL is doing it - keeps everything sort of sane and rational. If the system doesn’t permit grabbing up all the LL reservations in advance but rather make it as “as you go” system, then it keeps everyone in a more level playing field.
Thanks. Yes, I’ve been around a loooong time, and I go all the time. I think I’ve been to DLR between 1500 and 2000 times now. Disney used to have a counter on the AP page to track number. Before Covid, it was about 1300 times.
