Looking at the stats the last few months, it seems the predictions are off by an average of 3 numbers. I understand they are based off previous years/data, but you can clearly see huge differences this year - Most of June was predicted 5, 6 or 7 and actuals ended up 3s or even lower. I seem to recall on our scheduled trips through the site in the past, we would get predicted update changes. Do they still happen? If so, how many days out in advance usually? Sorry, I’m getting antsy as our trip is 34 days out. I hope everyone has a magical day!
And this accounts for what you’re seeing, IMO
Due to current events and the economy, many visitors - particularly international visitors - have curtailed their visits this year. That has resulted in much lower than typical crowds on many days.
The good news is they are not under-predicting, with folks then arriving to larger crowds than expected. Lower crowds would be a welcomed surprise! 
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Totally agree and we are now 2 weeks through July and the crowds were predicted 6, 7 & 8 and we have not seen any more than a 3. I just wonder if any changes will be made to the calendar, since we now have plenty of data/info like you mentioned. I think it is at least safe to say these 6, 7, & 8s that are predicted, should be changed to 4, 5, & 6s? Or maybe there will be a late summer rush to the parks or Disney will lower their staff which will make these predictions more accurate.
We are going the first week in August and I’m hoping those crowds stay low…
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August is typically lower crowds than the rest of the summer as many parts of the country go back to school in August.
I would definitely prefer the lower crowds but it’s at the point where if they stay this low do you even need LLs?
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Exactly and my trip in August is showing "6"s, so I’m inclined to buy LLs for at least a couple of days, but if it showed 3s & 4s, I would not think of it.
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I’m also surprised that the early closing of Hollywood Studios on 8/16 hasn’t prompted a decrease in crowd level for that day. Similar to how MK crowd level prediction for party days are much lower.
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I was just noticing the same. Seems crowds through July are hitting lowest amounts since 2021.
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Looks like they were just updated I received an email for my trip next month and almost everything is lower, substantially so in some cases.
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They did this late today. Here’s the blog about it.
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Same! My MK day went up one number but HS and EP dropped a ton.
All my numbers went UP for next spring!
It’s late and I’ve had wine, but I honestly cannot comprehend this section:
- Recalibrated our clustering thresholds with extra emphasis on spring-to-summer 2025 trends. This is a rescaling exercise which can cause a change in crowd level distribution without representing an actual change in crowd density. Just a realignment to the latest norm.
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I read this over three times this afternoon and could not figure it out. Maybe a change in the amount of time waiting in line that corresponds to a number of the CL scale? … just a guess with very little confidence that it is the correct interpretation.
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It’s explained in the comments of the blog post:
Recalibrated crowd level definitions – Our scale (1–10) now reflects the current reality of how busy a park feels relative to recent patterns. That means the same wait times that used to be a “6” might now qualify as an “8” if guests have generally been seeing shorter lines in recent months.
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I think it’s the “clustering thresholds” which aren’t very clearly defined! I definitely get the recalibrating crowd levels.
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Fred’s answer to that exact question:
Good question! When we say “recalibrated our clustering thresholds”, we mean we looked at the latest wait time data and adjusted what counts as a crowd level 3, 5, 10, etc. Ride patterns change over time — what used to be a “5” day might now feel like a “7.” We update the cutoffs so the crowd levels stay consistent with how busy the park feels now. Example: If a 45-minute wait used to happen on level 5 days but now shows up on lighter days, we shift things so 45 minutes maps to a lower level. Make sense?
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Thanks! I will have to go back and revisit comments. I guess I felt like they defined the crowd levels by wait times, so how could a 5 feel like a 7? I thought purposely there was no “feeling” in the crowd levels.
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I agree, it’s still confusing. I will keep reading the comments as more questions get asked and answers given.
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Yes that’s what’s confusing me - it seems like they might be changing their tactic to be more crowd based vs lines?
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