How much difference between level 1 and 3 crowds?

My boyfriend and I will be at the Dolphin for 2 nights April 29 & 30, 2020. We have 2 day parkhoppers. Our plan is check in on 4/29, lunch in Epcot, then over to MK for evening EMH. Then rope drop HS on 4/30. However, TP’s crowd calendar for 4/29 says CL 3 at MK and CL 1 at HS; while 4/30 is CL 2 at MK, CL 3 at HS. (UT puts both days at 5 but recommends HS on 4/29). Should we switch our days? Obviously we need to RD HS if we want a boarding group for RotR (which we REALLY DO), hence our plan to do HS on 4/30 when we can walk over from the Dolphin bright and early. But should we try to do everything else in HS on 4/29 when crowds are lower? I.E. check in and go straight to HS for everything except RotR (we want to ride millennium falcon and the new MM ride, and we’re big fans of ToT and rock coaster, but don’t care much about toy story land), hop over to MK for part of EMH if we have time, then the next morning go to HS early, tap in, get BG, then hop to another park?

I guess the real question is- is it worth doing something convoluted in order to spend more time in HS on a CL 1 day instead of CL 3 day, even leaving BG for RotR out of the equation?

I am a longtime lurker on these board but this is my first post. I’ve learned so much from you all that my BF thinks I’m the expert, but I’m really stumped by this decision. Our priority is galaxy’s edge and I’m just terrified we’ll miss out on something since we only have a couple days. So I’m turning to the real experts- HELP!

Either of those numbers will be delightful numbers to tour at.


TP statisticians Fred Hazel & Steve Bloom say you won’t really notice a difference in a 2 point variation in CLs.

Be aware that these CLs are not definite until about 45 - 30 days out. Right now they are just using historical data for 2018 / 2019.

IME - You’ll see fluctuations on the CLs right up to the week of your trip. I love TP but any CL # that is more than 30 days out I no longer trust.

I’ve seen it change right up to the week of my trips. TP only updates about once a month in advance and copies & pastes the previous year’s historical info into the farther away future dates - especially dates 180+ days out

Basically, start making your personalized touring plans and seeing what TP suggests is the best plan.


Thank you! I guess this is really what I needed to hear. Our past trips have all been in the summer with every day 5/6+, so I don’t have a sense for what to expect on “lower crowd” days. I’m bracing myself for the big crowds we’re used to, but also dreaming of skipping through an empty park :smile:

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Thanks! This is so good to know but also frustrating. Between this and the fact that everything will likely change once MMRR opens, I guess I’ll just be winging it when I book FPP+ at 60 days out this Sat. :woman_shrugging:

Yep! As much of a fan of TP as I am, been using since 2012, I’ve had to learn the hard way to not rely on it for exact booking dates. Then plan my park days based more on activites I want to do & ADRs I get. GL!! :smiley:


Unfortunately, the park is not empty on a CL 1 day! Honestly, I didn’t feel the crowds until it was CL 8.

Not sure if you saw my post on CLs from my December trip.

For our HS day with CL 1, we still waited 50 minutes in SB for MFSR and 15-30 minutes in SB for both times we went on TSM.

CLs are projections. I advise using them as a guide and do what works for you. You will be at WDW and will have a great time.


Thank you, @stlouie! Your post from December is extremely helpful. I’m continually amazed by and so grateful to everyone in this community taking the time to record and share this kind of info. It is an absolute dream for an over-planning data nerd like me.

Deep down inside I know it will be great no matter what the crowd level is. I’ve decided to ignore the crowd calendar from now until the week before our trip, and hopefully I’ll be pleasantly surprised!


While the BG process is in place, the mornings at HS will be crowded, even if CL is low. You likely won’t feel the lower CL until late afternoon.


We ended up getting a millennium falcon FP for 6:20 pm (the earliest available). So we’ll get our BG in the morning, head back to the hotel for some pool time and an early lunch, then enjoy the afternoon! Everything works out :slight_smile: