Sites that discuss ride capacity often mention both a theoretical capacity and a operational (peak time) capacity. Possible that the theoretical (i.e. “marketing”) max of MFSR is 1800 but that the current operational max is 1600. I’d expect something similar for RotR.
1 Like
RotR is currently only operating at 50% of capacity as far as I know.
2 Likes
If they are getting through 10-12 BGs per hour, and groups have approx. 125 in them, then we are in at least in the 70% hourly range. I think there is more throughput now than when it opened.
1 Like
For a thought exercise, if you want to calculate capacity based on number of BGs allowed, not actual riders, let’s see what the math says…
Today, BGs started to enter the queue about 7:15am. At 11am BG #63 was allowed on.(Source – BlogMickey.com)
For the sake of easy math… let’s say that DHS got 60 BGs in queue those first four hours. That’s 15 BGs per hour. Operating hours at DHS this week last up to 14 hours. That would mean DHS could get up to BG #210. They are currently stopping BGs at #121 – so that’s about 57% of the possible BGs that could potentially ride. If you want to say they manage to get a few back-up BGs on before the end of the night you could pump that number up to 60%. (This is still much lower than your estimate of 75%)
Now… I’ll use your theory of BGs = capacity percentage and translate it into number of riders to see how that looks:
Using BGs with 135 people in them (the average of your 125 – 150 people rounded down) you get 2025 people per hour. This is a throughput number that is higher than possible each hour even if the ride didn’t break down – which it has each day. My point is that your capacity estimate of 75% is much higher than even mathematically possible with how the ride is operating this week. It doesn’t matter if you count BGs or riders - RotR is not hitting 75% capacity – not even close.
Not trying to be mean, but since you are seriously concerned about being able to ride I want you to have as much info as possible.
3 Likes
Calculating hourly throughput based on number of daily BGs called is problematic because initial BGs are much more likely to actually ride than the backups. Late in the day, backup group conversion ratio (those called / those that actually show up) is going to decline as many guests have left the park, thus requiring more in each group to garner the same returns (likely why Disney isn’t creating boarding groups going up to 200 – the optics of that would also discourage backup group holders from thinking they’d ever get a shot). Initial “guaranteed” boarding groups (106 today), should they have 100 each (a more conservative guess), would result in 10,600 guests before backups even begin, which yesterday started around 6pm I believe. 10,600 would already be 52% capacity for a 12-hour day and backup guests haven’t even been tallied yet. My guess is that the backup boarding groups have considerably more guests per group to account for the conversion ratio difference.
With approx. 11 groups per hour (today it’s been 13.5 on avg, yesterday it was 9.3 according to Thrill-Data), and 100 per boarding group (more conservative), 70-75% is a reasonable guess. Given that we don’t know the exact size of a boarding group (which could even vary day-to-day) (one CM today said 500 (!) - obviously wrong), the only real way to measure would be to sit at the ride exit for an hour and count. I imagine we’ll get someone doing that soon.
1 Like
So I have just got figures from a pretty reliable source…
When it first opened it was running at 800 people / hour, which is 47% of capacity.
It is now running at 1200 / hour which puts it up at 70% of capacity.
That is quite an impressive improvement in just two weeks; I understand that they are getting the ride up again in much shorter time now than at the beginning.
DL is also running well in testing, much better than WDW was just before opening.
5 Likes
Oooh I really want to know! I love this kind of insider stuff. Especially about boring stats and figures. I have no idea why it’s so fascinating to me.
This is the best news I’ve read in quite some time. 
1 Like
Sounds right to me (70%)! And today they’ve already hit the backup groups and it’s only 2:45pm ET – if they have luck with the ride during the backup hours it could be an 80% day.
1 Like
I am going the first week too. I am hoping for at least EMH for HS. 9-8 are not enough hours!
OK… so I think we all agree that things will get better. Yea!
Here’s another encouraging note - boarding groups 76 - 102 got called to SWGE about 30 minutes ago. (Source BlogMickey)
They should be doing back-up groups soon. This is a sign that, hopefully, the ride is becoming more stable.
1 Like
Looks like they are cracking down and will not open BG until official park opening which is good.
1 Like
I’d prefer that DL does BG so less people would buy MaxPasses the day I’m there.
3 Likes
Good point! Hadn’t thought of that.
1 Like