How Accurate is the Touring Plan?


#1

I just read a previous post regarding the accuracy of the plans, but the responses indicated most people used the optimize feature. Does the accuracy count if I am creating my own plan? I'm not using optimized because I'm basing my plans on the research I've done and the distance between the rides.
I just want to have an idea of how realistic this plan is.


#2

You can choose "Evaluate" if you want to see wait times for the plan as-is (won't shuffle your steps, like Optimize). I've found the wait times accurate over the years of using TP.


#3

I did do that (Evaluate), but I wasn't sure if it was as accurate as optimize.


#4

Evaluate and Optimize are equally accurate, in that they are based on the same crowd level and wait time predictions. Whether those predictions themselves are accurate is a different matter. I have always had very good luck with them.


#5

Wait times are equally accurate whether you evaluate or optimize. I like creating my own order, too, so it "makes sense" for the way I think. That said, it can be interesting to create a copy of my plan, and then optimize the copy. Sometimes the software suggests something I haven't thought of myself.


#6

I'll use optimize on the first iteration to get a rough draft, but then I move things around and evaluate after each change.

As for "accuracy", it's been kind of hit or miss for me. For a number of years it was almost scary how accurate the predictions were. But then Disney started changing things; park hours, shows, discount times, seasonal ticket prices, etc - not to mention the introduction of FPPs - and it seems, to me, that the historical data based algorithms used in making the predictions for CLs is not able to keep up with the changes. I think the numbers are still "ballpark" for general planning purposes, but I certainly wouldn't base a minute-by-minute "schedule" on them.


#7

Thanks for all the replies. I assume as I get closer to the park day, I can re-evaluate it, I just plan to base my FP choices on this plan, so I wanted to make sure it was at least somewhat accurate.


#8

This appears to be the consensus from many who have used Evaluated/Optimized TPs recently. What everyone needs to remember is that even if the underlying wait time predictions are off, it is important to have a plan in the first place. Sure, it may not be tracking minute-by-minute, but it will most likely be far more effective than winging it. Remember, prior to being able to make personalized plans that are optimized for a specific day, we were using the generic plans in the UG and they were very effective.


#9

Optimize lets the program put it in the order that they feel is the best for what ever you put in your touring plan.

Evaluate leaves your plan in the order you have and just bases its the times on the program and when you have them selected. '

I am one that also does the Optimizing, then I make changes as I feel or want and use the Evaluate feature.


#10

This may be a stupid newbie question, but if you optimize your plan and don't like all the changes it made are you able to go back?


#11

I usually start a new plan so that I can compare them. If you optimize your saved one, I don't think there's a way to get the old one back.


#12

There is no UNDO button. Make a copy. I've wrecked one or two plans by forgetting to copy and 'just trying this'.

Definitely re-evaluate close to your date, because things change. Even if it's only a few minutes, it could mess up a lunch plan or parade plan, so it's always good to be watching the details.


#13

I do that too -- helps me judge if my plan is a really bad idea :slight_smile:


#14

no way to go back that I have been able to find. I create a copy of the plan if I really want to be able to go back easily.