Starting to plan spring 2023, and now that we have some post(?)-COVID craziness under our belts, what’s the consensus on crowd level prediction accuracy?
It’s still showing our week as a solid 4, and I have to admit I am skeptical. But things do seem to be calming down a little from the Jan/Feb nuttiness.
I think it’s absolutely impossible to say what crowd levels will be like in a year’s time.
I would follow preCOVID trends as to which weeks seem to be the busiest. Really hard to know that far in advance.
FYI – A common misconception about Touring Plans Crowd Levels is that they are an indicator of the number of people in each park. However, they are an indicator of average queue waits at the rides in that park during 11am – 5pm - the peak ride times.
A CL 1 can feel like a CL 4 in terms of park capacity, but the queues may be moving quickly. Conversely, you can be in a CL 9 park that feels like a CL 5 because the streets aren’t packed. However, all the queues are super long.
Be aware that these CLs and waits are not definite until about 45 - 30 days out. Right now they are just using historical data for 2019, 2020, 2021. (Sadly, this is an average using all the reported wait times. The waits in 2020 & 2021 were low because the only used BGs. So the reported waits were from people who didn’t “count” the hours “waiting”. They only reported the time actually in line…)
TP & CL’s shouldn’t be used to determine your travel dates. They just are helpful to see “trends” in crowds.
Basically, start making your plans, but know that you’ll “real” plan won’t be ready until about 30 days in advance.
I love TP but any CL # that is more than 45 - 30 days out I no longer trust. Wait and see… it’ll fluctuate. TP only updates about 45 - 30 days in advance and copies & pastes the previous year’s historical info into the farther away future dates.
Also, sometimes that far in advance they are just using the historical data from that calendar date and not adjusted for the day of the week.
For example, if your trip starts on a Monday, that day was probably a Sat. or Sun. in 2020. So you might see a CL10 because this year that “date” was a weekend. When they update the calendar in 2021 they’ll adjust for that date being on Monday this time.
Every different website crowd calendar has their own way of getting their CL number. I like to look at multiples to get a better idea of when it is a “slower” time to go. CLs for a specific date aren’t reliable.
As stated a good TP will put you ahead of 85%+ of the people wandering around asking, “Well… what do you want to do next?”
I hope you use the copy and paste method by now!
Pretty sure he types it out every time. 
Thanks everyone. I’m a long-term user of TP and have had great luck with it in the past, and I figured I knew the answer to my question, but just wanted to see if my assessment was correct.
All I really have to go on for timing of the trip is historical data (most of which shouldn’t change because, COVID or not, things like Easter placement and those effects, or holidays, or spring breaks MOSTLY haven’t changed). We’ve chosen end of April 2023, and Easter is the 9th I think. We’re stuck on the days we have to do MK, which kind of stinks, but it is what it is.
I am just excited we are close enough out to start even seeing a prediction, even if it’s not accurate yet. It’s been way too long!
I have my own FAQ sheet I use for these! 
Lol, I was thinking the exact same thing! I read it each time, and always start wondering that about halfway through. It’s super helpful to have this explanation. I’ll read it every time! 