Gringotts Predicted Wait Time

I noticed that today had a crowd level of 8 and a predicted wait time for Gringotts of 120 minutes. I am going to Universal on December 15 and the predicted wait time for Gringotts is over 300 minutes but the predicted crowed level for the park is only 4. Is this prediction of over 5 hours accurrate or will it probably be updated when it is closer to the time? I don’t understand why the estimated wait time almost trippled when the crowds are expected to less.

Hopefully one of the TP folks can clarify, but it looks to me the longer-term wait time predictions are a flat “default” time. Perhaps the statisticians do not have sufficient data yet to make more detailed predictions.

I’ll ask the stats team to weigh in. @fred or @SteveBloom?

My (limited) understanding is that near future & same day predictions are using our latest data, but the far future forecasts are still based on preliminary models. Hopefully they should be updated soon.