We’ll be going to US from 3/8-3/9 next year. I literally cannot go any other time due to being a college student. (Even though school ends in May, I’m going to try travelling abroad to England for Maymester.) That time is my university’s spring break. Is this early enough to justify saving a few bucks and doing without it? We’ll be most likely staying in a 2 Bedroom Suite at Surfside because that had what we needed.
If it is anything like this year, you might want to either spring for Express Pass, or upgrade to one of the hotels that includes Express Pass.
Crowd levels were a 10 this year around that same time.
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@ryan1 is correct. This year, the spring breakers started coming in already the first weekend of March. I think some years, spring break only kicks in the second weekend of March. I was at UOR the very beginning of March this year (2nd to 4th) and crowds were low.
The crowd calendar is showing surprisingly low crowd predictions on your dates next year, but I’m just not sure…
So yes, a good rule of thumb in the past was busier during the 2nd weekend of March and after. Here is an example:
Has this changed permanently to the first full weekend of March like this year, possible?
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Some Spring Breaks are keyed to Easter. So, they can move around year-to-year.
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After I thought about this more, I totally forgot to share my best strategy.
I had been tracking historic crowd levels the past 6 years or so to help determine what week I would visit WDW and UOR in 2021. I was back and forth between early Feb, late Feb, and early March. The data ended up showing that early March should be the best time to visit.
Now it’s not quite that simple. But by using President’s Day as a starting point, the consistency of the data and specific weeks always aligned. So basically this is what I came up with:
- President’s Day Week…High Crowds
- Week after President’s Day Week…Low to Moderate Crowds (busy arrival weekend)
- Two Weeks after President’s Day Week…Slightly Lower Crowds (than the previous week)
So #3 was my target week to visit in 2021. Now keep in mind, President’s Day was very early this year (15th). So in 2021, the week of 2/28 was the week I planned my trip for.
But next year (2022), President’s Day happens to be late. (21st) So that means the week of 3/6 should be a low crowd week. This thought aligns with the 2016 levels I posted earlier and this TP crowd prediction for next year:
So in conclusion the data and tracking, point to your week being low crowds. And you should not need EP. 
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