CONTEXT
While there are a goodly number of lower prices for this room throughout the year, it is really rare to see one this low between May and into August. Also, while the chart below includes all rentals for this room 2-nights or longer, if you look at longer rentals, this one is more like 25% under median AND it is a Preferred, which should add a few more % points to that discount. Overall, TWO THUMBS UP.
Some new upcoming 1BR and 2BR rentals at 20% or more below median, easily findable with the search engine.
My favs in the the recent data pull:
Starting with what MIGHT BE a mistake fare - would be interested to see if this is real.
Is so this is a GRAB IT IF YOU WANT IT ALERT
5-night OKW 1BR Villa start 1/26 for… wait for it… $260/night or 51% under the median for this room
LOWEST PRICE RECORDED for all rentals 2-nights or longer. A few 1-nighters a bit lower appeared in Dec 2022 and Jan 2023, but all appeared only a few weeks out from check in date.
Just noticed a 2-night Poly Bungalow for 5/19 just dropped in price to $1794 - the 2nd lowest price recorded. Have only seen 28 Bungalow rentals so far.
A whole gaggle of new Vero Beach 1-night Studios again today going for either $165 or $190. AGAIN each suspiciously spaced more than 1-night apart so you can’t string multiple together.
They are like cats - who want you to pet them, but then take 5 steps away so you can’t reach 'em.
There’s always the possibility of seeing some random lower-priced rentals for this room type on shorter stays - but they are still rare. At 5-nights this is very likely the deal to grab if you’re looking for one in July!
BTW: It is pretty rare to see this room for a 6-night or longer: only 38 since start of project. Looking at that smaller number of rentals makes this one closer to 40% under median.
…AND My suspicion that it was a mistake was manifested: they have changed the listing from a 1BR villa to a studio at the same price. In truth, that is still about $25 under median price, so pretty good for something this far out, but not earth shattering.
With the afternoon pull we’re up to 42 new rentals today. Nothing up hitting the 20% or so below median threshold that I usually post, but several rentals that are just below that at 16-19% under median that might be interesting to people in the summer time frame.
3 Poly studio rentals, first two identical.
Both 3-night start 7/7 for $437/night or 16% under.
While we’ve seen a few random Poly studio rentals as low as $364/night, this price sits right above the most common lowball price most of the year. (September has a bunch of lower ones.)
Couple of BW Studios, both also at VacationClub.
Again: While we’ll probably see some random lower priced rentals show up for these dates in the next several weeks, these prices are pretty lowball already.
Also: In reality this 7-nighter is really more like a SECRET SUPER VERY NICE.
(See 2nd scatter chart below with more info.)
In the case of the 7-nighter: If you just look at rentals of that length or more, this one is really more like 28% under median and really is a steal for the time frame if you want a longer week.
That is the week we have booked to be down for the week between Miami and a hang around stay at the Grand Cypress - if I weren’t doing another ALL POINTS ALL THE TIME EXTRAVAGANZA, I would be all over that BW 7-nighter like HOT on DISNEY PAVEMENT.
Both of these only appeared 2 days ago, have already dropped in price by $100/night.
These Poly studios at this price in the summer just seem to keep on arriving.
If you only look at 4-nights or longer rentals, these deals are more like 21% under median overall
Looking at the scatter chart, you’ll notice there has been a largeish batch of even lower priced studios all starting in September if you can push to then…
4-night Poly Studio start 7/15 now $420 or $19% under median.
First chart is the active number of rentals ON that date each year.
Bottom one is the 14-day window medians surrounding each date in the year.
When I get a chance later, going to try making a similar pair but using the number of rentals that start on each date for the top chart and then look at future dates. (But, the problem with that will be that the median for future dates is very likely higher now and will decline as the date approaches, so won’t give an “actual” unless I only use data from the previous year as of the same date. That will take some time to create an automagic filter so I don’t have to do it manually each time.)
6-night AK Kidani Studio start 6/30 for $263/night or 24% under median.
Pretty good chance that might be the lowest we see for that room in that time frame.
You can see in the chart that last year we saw a group of Kidani studios down to $200 starting in mid-July.
They tended to appear in the under 30-day window, so if there will be a repeat of that pattern this year, probably time to start watching for them in about 3 weeks.
Still haven’t monitored the median to closely for this room because different sites are calling the room Cabin or 1BR Villa, which I have to clean up. But, from the ones marked Cabin so far that price is 23% under the median. (Need more data to trust that median, IMHO, though.)
Did not run a late data pull last night because DVC-Rental was down - or more accurately had a “site updating” message up. Surprisingly, still that way this morning!
That site is only about 11-12% of all rentals, so will just modify my script to ignore it for this morning when I run it in a bit.
GRAB IT IF YOU WANT IT ALERT 
