We usually update a couple of models per week, so the predictions do change.
We compare our predictions for each attraction against other crowd calendar predictions for the same attraction. We update a model when we’re not twice as accurate as a competitor. For example, we’d update any model that isn’t more accurate than any competitor, at least 20 times in the last 30 days.
We’d also update the model if we see that the average error for our prediction exceeds 10 minutes either way, over the course of a month.
Some models, like Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster, can go 90 days without an update. I think our Spaceship Earth model hasn’t been beat in about a month, for example. Other models, especially those where Disney tweaks the Fastpass+ usage, get updated pretty much monthly.