To provide a silver lining (and also play devil’s advocate), the TP Disneyland CC’s have been massively off as of recent. For example, Monday April 22nd was projected to be an 8 and historically was recorded as a 2. The day before (April 21st) was projected a 5 and recorded a 1. Saturday April 27th was projected a 3 and was recorded as a 7. These are just a few of many recent misfires by the CC projections.
Please don’t get me wrong, I still appreciate the CC’s but am learning with time to accept them more for what they are; predictions of the future. Regardless of the statistical data used to calculate these measurements, they are predictions and should be viewed as a possibility and not a certainty (which in all fairness, TP says this all along and those of us who have viewed it as more only have ourselves to blame, me included).
There are so many factors that influence the Disneyland crowd that are hidden, unpredictable, and very dynamic. For example, school field trips to DL are very common in this area and could never be factored into the predictions here, but would greatly increase the crowd levels. Also, state testing schedules are different from year to year and also from school to school. This also influence crowd size as many schools prohibit field trips during this window of time. Schools will also encourage parents to make sure children are at school near testing time to increase the odds of higher testing scores.
To be honest, I used the CC’s to make my travel plans hoping the dice would roll in my favor. However, after choosing a travel window I began looking at the Anaheim convention center calendar of events. Many large conventions in Anaheim will translate into large DL crowds (there was a CA state FFA convention from April 26-29 that could have attributed to the huge crowds that were unpredicted on April 29th and 30th). I also began looking at school calendars for the area to try and note any patterns of field trips/promotion receptions, etc. It just so happens we will be visiting during the state testing window as well as during many of the HS’s AP exams and finals (I’m crossing my fingers that bodes well for us with local crowds of kids).
All in all, that day your concerned about might end up being the most beautifully empty park day you’ve ever seen…faith, trust and pixie dust right?