Anything we do to reduce case numbers reduces the risk of escape variants.
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I am adding the caveat that I’m speaking hypothetically only!
Anyhow, this is why people getting vaccinated now is SO incredibly key. It isn’t to necessarily prevent infection from the Delta variant…but if the Delta variant is going to cause mass infections regardless, we DO know that being vaccinated significantly reduces severity and chance of hospitalization.
So, people need to get vaccinated to reduce strain on the health system…but the spread of Delta will still happen, and then burn itself out. The sooner that happens, the less time there is for other variants to crop up.
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I will add that, since we don’t know if this (my hypothesis) is the case, my wife and I have gone back to wearing masks indoors, despite being fully vaccinated. (We may have been the only two people wearing masks, outside of kids, in our church yesterday!!!) And yet, if my hypothesis IS correct, the mask wearing might be in vain/futile, regardless.
I am so confused by this. Delta has been around since last December, before people were being vaccinated. How does people getting vaccinated now help prevent variants from popping up? Surely the next variant is already out there and spreading.
I just don’t see the point. Same with the flu vaccine. It mutates every year. Covid will continue to mutate for years and years to come. If it was a one-and-done kind of a vaccine I’d be all over it but I am not ok with a yearly vaccine (for myself) that is mostly guessing as to what’s to come.
Consider the Spanish Flu. I forget the exact timing of it, but it was going around for something like 2 years, and then, bam. It was over.
As other variants develop, people are developing greater levels of immunity. So, right now, for example, people are vaccinated against early variants. Delta came up, and started spreading…BUT, the vaccines were still offering levels of protection, even if not as effectively so. Yet, those who are vaccinated and/or have had a previous variant, but then are exposed to Delta will now have “double immunity”, which then offers great protection against other variants from forming/spreading, even if not 100% so.
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Dr. Jetelina (YLE) was just talking about this on March for Science on Friday. Apparently, Covid mutates less frequently than the flu. (But more frequently than measles. She didn’t give numbers though.) So that’s some good news, anyway.
This surge may be winding down within 5 weeks, but there will still be virus circulating at that point. The vaccines do still prevent a significant number of infections. Every single case prevented is one less chance for the virus to mutate. So every jab could be the one that matters. Like most preventative measures, you don’t see the direct results of your efforts though.
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It isn’t JUST about guessing (although that is a part of it), but it is keeping the immune system primed and ready. Even if they get it wrong, annual flu shots have been proven to reduce the severity and risk of severe illness against flu, not altogether different from how the, say, Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine is protecting people from severe cases even with Delta, despite the fact it isn’t nearly as effective, overall, against Delta.
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I found this graphic on flu vaccines to be informative.
ETA: It would be great if the other 48% getting vaccinated could double those savings, but I’m guessing a higher percentage of at risk people are already getting vaccinated, so it probably wouldn’t be quite that dramatic. But it would help! And so would applying some of our Covid learnings. (Especially the simple ones like hand washing!!!)
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I get the flu shot every year. I don’t really consider it a big deal to get. It prevents me from getting the flu or it gives me a less severe version that lasts a day or 2. I work with some medically fragile children, as well as infants under 6 months, so I feel it is part of my responsibility to get the flu shot to protect them, as well as my own children. I don’t get why there is such an issue with getting any vaccine, unless you have a medical reason not to. But to each their own I guess.
I also get the benefit of getting a $5 coupon for Target (where I typically get my flu shot). 
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I agree that time will tell. Look to India, the UK and Israel in a few months and I think we’ll know more one way or the other. So much of this pandemic is making decisions based on what we know or think now but also realizing we are likely to learn more in a few months, and sometimes it’s better and sometimes it’s worse than we supposed.
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I’m no scientist but I think the reasoning is literally the fewer cases the fewer opportunities the virus has to mutate.
So 100 cases in a room is 100 chances to mutate. Ten cases in a room is 10 chances. So vaccinations now won’t help cut those numbers today but will in 5 weeks.
Theoretically.
That is my understanding.
So maybe we never get to the next delta. Or maybe we do but in a slower way that is easier for society to stay normal and handle it without as extreme spikes.
I am not trying to press you to vaccinate, you sound like you have plenty of reasons you don’t want to. I’m just literally sharing my understanding in response to your question.
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I have never seen the towel Origami for years and that was only on a cruise ship many many years ago.
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In general you were right. On the contrary though since Biden paid out all those funds people have gotten used to them and no longer wish to work. Most this is NOT the case but there are many. Have you noticed how high school children no longer feel they should have to work. This used to provide the service industry with young workers. Now the biggest bunch of bull is when you go by Walmart which is screaming for employees and there in the roadways are beggar after beggar. worse yet they are picked up all together in a van at the end of the day. 
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That face when you pop back into a thread and then decide to pop right the heck back out.
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Or… parents of high school students would rather they not be put in a situation where their children are more exposed to the virus than they need to be.
I have a 15yo and a 20yo. The 15yo is autistic and not quite ready for a part time job (maybe next summer?), but the 20yo started two part-time jobs last July. While both were working with the public (grocery store cashier & restaurant server) as her parents, we vetted them as to their safety protocols and if the protocols were actually followed.
I was NOT comfortable with her working but she is in college and over 18yo so we worked together to find positions that were safER, than others. Only one employee of the restaurant tested positive in the last year (caught outside of the restaurant). Dd left the grocery store position in March to pick up more hours at the restaurant.
If she was a high school student… I wouldn’t have let her work. We are are in a position that she wouldn’t need to and I don’t think it would be worth the risk of exposure … or bringing it home to her family.
Please don’t assume that young people “no longer feel they should have to work,” as work may be a nice to have and not worth being screamed at by customers that refuse to follow store rules and/or being exposed to a deadly virus…all for less than $10/hr.
FWIW, dd is still working as a server at a local restaurant. She continued to wear a mask even after being fully vaccinated …first to not bring anything home to her unvaccinated younger brother, and then because the variant started to be more prominent since she is serving people that are unmasked while eating.
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Here’s some. Everyday we came back to the room from the parks we stood and waited to open the door so we could all see what surprise Waited
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Wise choice.
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DH just found out his company’s covid policy: If you catch covid at work they will comp your PTO, but if you catch it outside you have to take your own time off. A co-worker just returned after being gone 3 weeks, w/ covid. She is now in the red for PTO since she caught covid while visiting family in TN.
This same company never enforced its masking policies and now they are optional. My DH"s team, that is all vaccinated, opted to wear masks at all face to face mtgs.
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We used to take ALL the stuffed beanie baby sized characters we own (we have A LOT of them) when the kids were little and drop them in the middle of the bed when we left the room. Every day we would come back and they would be arranged in fun and adorable ways…sometimes w/ towel creations. 
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When my kids were littles, my son got really mad about the CM ‘touching’ his stuffed animals, so he started hiding them in the room. 
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