Difference in crowd calendars

I used touringplans crowd calendar last year and was very pleased. Going to WDW again this December and noticed a vast difference in the crowd predictions between TP and undercover tourist. We are going to HS on 12/13. TP has crowd level of 2 while undercover tourist says to stay away from HS that day. TP has Epcot as a 4 on 12/14 while undercover tourist has Epcot listed as ‘stay away’ on that date. Any explanation for the vast difference in these 2 calendars? I’ve used undercover tourist in the past and was pleased with them.

TP CLs are used to predict attraction wait (there is a table somewhere to translate CL into wait times).

UT CLs are more to give you an idea of the number of people visiting that day.

Now, why these 2 sometimes don’t seem too fit ? I have no idea…

Its easier to predict the weather than Disney crowd level. So that should give you some idea as to why there is a discrepancy. It’s not an exact science. It’s speculative and they probably use different information in their estimates.

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Each site that tries to do this has its own “formula” that takes into account different variables. Some sites mark a park as “stay away” if that park has EMH on that day (TP used to do this), the logic being that the vast majority of people in the parks don’t have EMH access, and parks with EMH tend to be more crowded than those that don’t. Also, RD at a park with EMH is much less effective if you can’t take advantage of the EMH.

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