Difference between Posted and Expected times in the WDW Lines app?

When I look at MK wait times in the app on my phone, I compare “posted” to “expected” times. I am understanding the information to mean that Disney is posting a wait time of, let’s say, 60 minutes for 7DMT, but then TP is expecting that wait in that line at that particular time to be only 38 minutes. Am I understanding things correctly? Are expected times just TP predictions?

If I am, and even if Disney is liberal (overestimates the wait time), why is the TP’s expected time nearly ALWAYS far shorter than Disney’s posted times? I have been glancing at these times for a couple months now, and TP always says expected times are (usually significantly) lower than posted wait times. It’s difficult to believe that TP expected times are both so much shorter and much more accurate. It’ll be my first time to WDW, but I’ve been to DL and can remember when a Disney posted time of 30 minutes actually took 40 minutes in line.

I’m concerned that my personalized plan in MK for a morning in late Feb is far too ambitious than what could actually be accomplished in one morning (though TP says it can all get done with very very little wait).

I do believe in “the numbers”/math, but it is seeming strange to me that TP’s times are often so low.

You have it right. “Posted” is what Disney shows outside of the attraction. “Expected” is the TP prediction based on the collected data of Liners who post “actual” times. The “best” times are the same-day “actual/timed” waits posted by Liners.

Disney’s posted wait times are also adjusted by the “red tag” cards, where a CM at the front of the line will give someone a lanyard with a red card on it after scanning it, and the person hands it to the last CM before boarding, to time how long that person waited in line. That’s fine, but if a large tour group gets in line immediately after that person, the wait time for someone who comes immediately after the first person turns the card in with be significantly greater than posted. So I always take the posted wait times with a very large grain of salt.