Crowd Predictor March & April 2017


#1

Hi, hoping to get come clarity regarding the crowd predictions for Disneyland and California Adventure Park for March & April 2017. We (family of 4) are heading over from Australia and are currently booked into accommodation from the 28th of March until the 5th of April with the intention of buying a 4 day park hopper pass. Looking at the crowd predictor for this time I see that crowds in the week commencing Monday 27th March are expected to be 6 or 7 out of 10, and for the following week (week commencing Monday 3 April) they are predicted to be only 3 or 4 out of 10. I am just wondering how accurate this is likely to be? I know this is during Spring Break and looking back through the historical crowds I can see that these weeks in the last few years have traditionally been 9 or 10 out of 10. Ideally we want to avoid any super busy days and can make some minor changes to our itinerary that would mean we could spend our 4 days in the first week of April. I don't really want to go changing existing flight and accommodation bookings though if these predictions aren't likely to be accurate. Does anyone know if there is a reason why the first week of April 2017 isn't expected to be too busy??


#2

Possible that Easter is 3 weeks later this year. Lots of areas get breaks over Easter holiday so they will not be there at the end march beg of April but mid april instead. Also its too far away for crowd calanders to be accurate. They will change again before then. There might be changes to block out dates for AP holders again next year . Lots of variables. Also there isn't alot of differences in wait times over 1-2 crowd levels. Remember crowd levels are NOT numbers of visitors but wait times for key rides during the hours of 10-5 only.


#3

Thank you. Coming from Australia its so hard to know the right time to be there. In hindsight we should have tried to get there early March to avoid Spring Break altogether - my wife did warn me!!! We'll just have to take it as it comes - hopefully the later Easter means crowds will be more spread over the 2 months. Thanks again.


#4

Spring breaks will be all over the place, but the best bet is that the majority of them will stray closer to Easter so l with Easter two weeks away and more spread out Spring breaks does make a lot of sense (my kids are out for Spring Break that week of April 3 but we are in a district that doesn't seem to follow a lot of districts spring breaks surrounding us). While I agree that AP blockouts do affect the crowd levels, I think it will be rare that they change within 10-11 months of the date BUT what is liable to change is Disney's park hours/entertainment offerings/last minute AP holder exclusive incentives & draws to the park and those things have influence over the ebb & flow of the local crowds.

For instance, there are rumors of a Food & Wine festival returning to DCA in the Spring and if that's the case then depending on when the festival is offered and how it's executed you may see a higher crowd level too. Last year they brought it back for the first time in a long while and it was quite popular, but only offered on weekends. Also, DLR has been offering AP Days during slower park times with special offerings, character meets and photo ops for APs that aren't announced until about 30 days before the event starts. I doubt they would do an AP event for April with spring breaks, but they do tend to be last minute (well last minute if you're trying to plan in advance for a trip) about these scheduling items.

Also, with a prediction as low as 3/4 for that week in April I would be very surprised if it stuck and would be more counting on it being a 5-7 range crowd. Disney is always working their hardest to have some sort of draw (discounted days/hotel rooms, etc) to keep the attendance high for the obvious reasons.

Regardless, spring is a great time to go. Perfect weather with sunshine that's not too hot and rare rain or wind. And even though closer to Easter can bring the spring break crowds, usually for the month before and sometimes a little bit after Easter they have an Easter Egg scavenger hunt you can purchase a map for and do in the parks and at the end pick a souvenir character easter egg. It adds extra fun to the already grand experience of DLR and I would do DLR at easter again in a heartbeat (but maybe not the drive to & from home, that part was gridlock the whole way!!!)


#5

Thank you for your very generous response lolabear_la - you have provided alot of detail which is greatly appreciated.

I am completely overwhelmed by the amount of information online about visiting Disneyland - there seems like so much to think about.

If I could go back in time I would have booked our trip for the first week of March but I think we're just going to have to make the most of the time we will be there. We've given ourselves enough time to spend at least 4 if not 5 days in the parks so i know we'll get to see and do everything either way.

The idea of the Food & Wine Festival sounds good (i'm in hospitality myself). I will keep an eye for further information - thanks for the tip.

Thanks again, Daniel.


#6

You're very welcome! If you happen on more questions ask away! I do always recommend early March to people I know who are crowd-shy, but April the weather is literally perfect so you won't miss out by being those dates instead!


#7

We have been there for our Spring break (mid March) for the last two years and are going back in 2017. It seems the crowd calendar always bumps up as we get closer to arrival date. It has not been horrible for us. But we always arrive before rope drop.


#8

Thanks Grumpy_in_Tejas - it seems like getting there early is the key! We are staying at the Homewood Suites so at least we will be close by. Having kids that are programmed not to sleep past 6am probably also helps. Glad to hear there's a slim chance it won't be as bad as I am fearing. Thanks again.


#9

I will be sure to ask more questions! There is still more than 200 days until our trip - lots of time for me to overthink everything! Cant wait to get there.


#10

Rope drop, a touring plan and FP's are the key. A mid day break out of the parks for a nap or swim and then back in the evening has worked well for us.
If there is going to be a crowd you just have to be smarter than the crowd.
We will be there March 12-17, 2017. Staying at GC.


#11

I was just at Disneyland over the weekend of February 10 thru Feb. 13 and except for the 10th, a Friday, it was very busy. Friday was rainy so that is why it wasn't busy. I was surprised at how busy it was on that Monday - a 9 according to touring plans which had predicted that it would be a 4. This was a Monday!!! No school breaks that I was aware of.


#12

see you there.12 thru 18 March getting antsy