Crowd Predictions during Covid?

I’ve always loved using the Touring Plans crowd predictions, but with the reduced capacity I’m confused. It the rating given based on if the parks had 100% capacity? Or does it take into consideration that the parks are at reduced capacity? For example, today all the park reservations are completely full with all park reservations full for every park, which I would think would indicate a 10. But Touring Plans has the capacity listed at a 4. Can someone fill me in? I realize that making predictions when things are so crazy is somewhat guesswork, I’m just wanting to know how they calculate it now. Thank you!

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It’s about wait times, not how many people are in the park. It’s always been that way. They’ve had people in the parks testing wait times extensively since the reopening. I found them to be pretty accurate on my December trip.


Disney is capping attendance at 35% right now too. But they won’t disclose how many ppl 35% represents. @ninjasherrie answered how TP calculates crowd numbers I’m just adding in random stuff :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:


Welcome to the forum! @ninjasherrie is right, crowd prediction levels are solely based on wait times. Not actual crowds as you would envision.

Remember, with the reduced capacity level around 30% or so you would only see a 10 when expected capacity is over say 80-90%.

Here is a good example. TP uses these ‘guides’ to help with predictions:

*Wait time predictions determine crowd levels predictions.


I’ll add to this. When you see a 6 at Epcot, it’s because there are less rides there so the lines will be longer than MK because of the many rides there. Plus, Epcot holds a lot more people than other parks, because it is so big and will handle thousands more people .


I understand the basics of how crowd levels are calculated based on wait times at key attractions over some hours of the day and how they are categorized, BUT, I don’t really understand the overlapping ranges of wait times. Ex: 70 min wait for ToT in peak time could be a CL1, 2, 3, 4, or 5. Are the ranges merely a statistical spread so to speak? Is this a range over the day during peak hours or statistical spread around a mean for that CL day? I’d love a more detailed explanation…

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I see what you’re saying. This may help:

"We’ve taken the highest wait times for each day we have data, split them up by the Disney’s Hollywood Studios crowd level estimate we have for those days, then calculated the average range by level.

If you’re going on a day where Disney’s Hollywood Studios is estimated as a ‘3’ crowd level, the times under the ‘3’ column will be a good estimate of the longest wait you’ll see for each attraction. As you can see, some attractions vary a lot more than others."

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This is good to hear. I love using the app in the park to optimize and make the most of my time. I was hoping that with the data they’ve collected and with people submitting love wait times that things would come out pretty accurate despite so many unknowns this year.

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