Crowd predictions around Easter for end of March... are they correct?

Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar
1

Hello all:

I am a new poster to this forum. Apologies in advance if I’m asking a dumb question!

I am planning a trip to Disney area from Thursday March 29 to April 3rd, which covers Easter this year in 2018.

The Unofficial Guide for 2018 annual attendance chart shows that Easter weekend is one of the busiest periods for the parks (although it shows it in April, and Easter is in March this year).

But, in the touringplans.com crowd calendar for Disney World, I see much higher line length predictions for the Thursday (average 8.6), than the Friday (8.2), Saturday (7.4), Sunday (6.8), or Monday (8.2).

In booking our trip, including one day at WDW, I had assumed prior that the Thursday would be much less busy than the (Easter) weekend, given the attendance chart in the book. But, the line length predictions seem to contradict this. The only listed event I can see, which covers the whole period, is the Flower & Garden Festival, at Epcot.

Any insights into why the predictions could be this way around Easter this year? I need to pick the best Disney-day in advance.

Thanks in advance for the help!

Dan Pronovost

Raw data:

Mar. 29, 2018
Thursday 9
Track This Day 9
_
8a-12a 8
_
8a/9a-9p 10
_
9a-9p 7
_
8a-10p PEAK
$129 (MK) Trip: Walt Disney World Trip
Flower & Garden Festival at EP
Mar. 30, 2018
Friday 9
Track This Day 9
_
7a/8a-12a 7
_
9a-9p 8
_
9a-9p 8
_
8a-10p PEAK
$129 (MK) Good Friday
Flower & Garden Festival at EP
Mar. 31, 2018
Saturday 8
Track This Day 8
_
8a-11p 7
_
9a-9p 6
_
9a-9p 8
_
7a/8a-10p PEAK
$129 (MK) Passover
Passover
Flower & Garden Festival at EP
DATE RESORT
CROWD LEVEL MAGIC
KINGDOM EPCOT HOLLYWOOD
STUDIOS ANIMAL
KINGDOM TICKET
SEASON WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR
Apr. 1, 2018
Sunday 7
Track This Day 6
_
8a-11p 7
_
9a-9p 6
_
8a/9a-9p 8
_
8a-10p PEAK
$129 (MK) Easter Sunday
Flower & Garden Festival at EP
Apr. 2, 2018
Monday 8
Track This Day 8
_
8a-12a 7
_
9a-9p 10
_
9a-9p 8
_
7a/8a-10p PEAK
$129 (MK) Easter Monday
Flower & Garden Festival at EP

2

Your question is not a dumb question. I am a regular attendee - a local annual passholder. In my opinion, TP has not been too terribly accurate, and the crowd feel is really no different once you get past 7. Personally, I’m miserable with any crowd level above 6, but I keep reminding myself a crowded day at Disney is better than no day at Disney.

I have been eight times in the past four weeks and each day has felt more crowded than usual to me. My experience is that Touring Plans has been decent on predicting which park will be most crowded for the day, but can be one or 2 levels off (above prediction) on any given day for the resort average overall.

My advice is to get your Fast Passes as early as your are allowed to and either go very early in the morning at rope drop, or stay til close.

I was at the parks in December, January, and February, which is supposed to be the “slow time”, but I have noticed, very consistently, that the parks have gotten very busy no matter the level after 10:30 a.m. and start to trim down after the fireworks in the evening. Despite what the numbers say, I’m going by how I feel, and the number mean nothing.

Get your Fast Passes for the middle of the day when you won’t feel like standing in the line in the heat. It is hot here now. Not that 80 degrees should feel hot, but the sun is so bright and clear here, 80 will be uncomfortable if you are standing in line in the sun.

Then you need to come with an annual passholder mindset, not a once in a lifetime mindset.

I feel sorry for those who have are coming here to fulfill a lifetime dream and find themselves elbow to elbow without the other tourists. I don’t mean to sound like like a Debbie Downer (my real name is Debbie, btw), but I have seen many once in a lifetime attendees these past few weeks, and they get really cranky because their expectations are not being fulfilled. I’m trying to help you lower your expectations so that you will be pleasantly surprised when you get here, instead of angry.

I’m afraid that even in the slow season that’s how it’s feeling now - that the parks are crazy busy.

Have a touring plan with a plan b to go to attractions that never have a long wait no matter the crowd, i.e. People Mover, Laugh Floor, Carousel of Progress, Mickey’s Philharmagic, the Carousel in Fantasy Land, Teacups, Country Bear Jamboree, Hall of Presidents, and the train, Swiss Family Robinson Treehouse, Tiki Room, and Tom Sawyer’s Island for Magic Kingdom

Epcot: Living with the Land, Figment, Finding Nemo, Pixar theatre, the various movie options in World Showcase in France, Canada, and China, Three Cabelleros

Animal Kingdom: Triceratops Spin, the walking trails, the Conservation Station, Lion King Musical, Finding Nemo

Disney Hollywood: Muppets 3D, Star Wars Launch Bay, sometimes Star Tours, sometimes Indiana Jones, Little Mermaid Show, Beauty and the Beast Musical

My expectation is to always be able to partake in at least nine attractions to get my money’s worth. If you have your three FastPasses plus, put any of these listed above for your plan b incase the day gets busier than predicted, you have gotten your money’s worth.

If you go with the realistic expectations, you will have a great time no matter the day and predicted crowd. And, while you are here, soak up and notice the many different things that bring the Disney Magic, especially the music. For me, it’s worth just soaking in the atmosphere.

Hope this helps. :slight_smile:

You can check out my blog for more tips, ideas what to do, and trip reports at http://www.wdwlens.blogspot.com

Oh, and here’s a post I made specifically about how to plan for the crowds:

1 Like
3

Thank you Debbie for the thoughtful feedback… greatly appreciated!

Our family has been to Disney 3 times now, but not for 10 years. So… now it will be two adults, and our 15 year old. In the past, we always went in low season (early December, last week of August). I am mentally preparing for much busier parks for this trip, since end of March is high season, especially around Easter.

Fast passes… we’ll definitely leverage those (again) to the max! Alas… I miss the old system, which I think was far easier to ‘leverage’ to the benefit of the savvy user. The new system levels the playing field for more people, and means less opportunity to maximize benefits.

We have some very old park hopper tickets with one day left on them, that never expire, from the year 2000. Sounds great… expect through many calls to the park, we can’t activate them until we arrive, unfortunately (has to be done in person at Guest Services, apparently… tried every online system and call in, they say these are too old). So… this means we can’t plan our fast passes until we arrive. Grrrr… not very Disney-like for service.

I think you are correct that the crowd predictions here are a bit rough, and anything over 7 is pretty darn busy. I simply can’t believe the Thursday will be more busy than the Saturday or Sunday (of Easter weekend)… so I think I will keep our plans to go on the Thursday. Unless there is some rational reason why Mar 29th will be that much more busy than the 31st or Apr 1st… I am suspicious of the crowd predictions. Maybe someone else can share some insights into this.

Thank you again for your help.

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I can only tell you what we experienced in the Easter period last year. The Thursday at MK was mad, all calendars including TP were saying the Thursday would be the quietest which it wasn’t it ended up being a 10 and I have never experienced a theme park like it. The Saturday afterwards was a lot quieter so yes I can believe this. Saturday is often a travel day and locals are probably avoiding the parks like the plague during Easter.

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Thank your Rob/Lynsey for the feedback. That is extremely helpful. It’s not what I would have intuited, but I am sure you are bang on! We’ll adjust our plans accordingly.

Thanks,

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You are welcome. That’s stinks about the FP. I miss the old system too. We used to send my son, who was a cross country star to the FP cues for us.