Crowd level prediction accuracy

We are using the crowd levels to plan a trip in January 2020. The Disney person we talked to when making reservations said that crowd predictions are not accurate since the Star Wars area will be open. Is that true?

I think it’s fair to say that nobody is sure yet what effect SWGE will have on crowds.


Hi - welcome to the Forum! Yes, the opening of the Star Wars area causes a lot of uncertainty, particularly in predicting wait times for the new attractions. However, whether the CL predictions are accurate, only time will tell.


TP is using historical data to make it’s predictions. Since SWGE is new, they are basing CL off attractions like FoP or SDD. The figures will get a bit more accurate 60 days in advance.

Traditionally, January is a slower time to go once all the kids are back in school from winter break.

Oh! Welcome aboard! Please ask anything.

There’s no such thing as a dumb question. It’s the questions that you don’t ask that’ll make you look dumb later.

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Thanks so much!

Welcome to the forum! Crowd predictions probably aren’t accurate, but all the non-Star Wars factors that feed them (holidays, weekends, school calendars, etc.) should mean that the relative crowd levels when you compare one day’s crowd level to another should be in the right ballpark. Though with the Rise of the Resistance ride officially announced as opening early December it might be new enough that it skews some of the other patterns.

We chose our trip window as the last 2 weeks of August because my kids don’t go back to school until the day after Labour Day and the crowd levels were looking noticeably lower than the first 2 weeks of August. This was in early February before SW:GE timing was announced. Our weeks are still looking mostly quieter than the first two weeks of August, though the Hollywood Studios predictions went up a bunch for our dates. It’ll be interesting to see how crowds actually play out while we’re there – I’m cautiously pessimistic but think we’ll have fun anyway.

Good luck with your planning!