Just checked out the “observed” crowd data for Friday March 7th 2025 and just curious why the crowd level rating decreased from their predicted. The predicted was a 7 and the observed went down to a 5 but almost every listed attraction had longer actual wait times than predicted. This probably isn’t scientifically accurate but if you sum up their “how close” column you arrive at + 29 minutes which I would expect to be a negative number since the rating went down. I’m just trying to get a handle on the accuracy of their predictions and this just seems off. Am I missing something?
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Apparently TP no longer posts their “How did we do” data. The wait times in plans I generate for an “8” Epcot day differ very widely from one calendar date to another,which I’m assuming is because of historical wait times those dates have had in previous years. I’ve been playing with plugging in agendas for dates other than when I’m going, in late May, because TP still lists Epcot and HS opening 30 minutes earlier than normal, I guess because it did last year. I’m thinking historical data may not be as good a predictor of wait times or crowds as it used to be.
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The comparison historic data is still there just a little more difficult to access than previously. It’s now called “ What We Predicted vs. What We Saw” and is found by clicking the clock icon above the month to the left. Once landed on that page, click specific date and the comparison data is there.
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