Just checked out the “observed” crowd data for Friday March 7th 2025 and just curious why the crowd level rating decreased from their predicted. The predicted was a 7 and the observed went down to a 5 but almost every listed attraction had longer actual wait times than predicted. This probably isn’t scientifically accurate but if you sum up their “how close” column you arrive at + 29 minutes which I would expect to be a negative number since the rating went down. I’m just trying to get a handle on the accuracy of their predictions and this just seems off. Am I missing something?
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Apparently TP no longer posts their “How did we do” data. The wait times in plans I generate for an “8” Epcot day differ very widely from one calendar date to another,which I’m assuming is because of historical wait times those dates have had in previous years. I’ve been playing with plugging in agendas for dates other than when I’m going, in late May, because TP still lists Epcot and HS opening 30 minutes earlier than normal, I guess because it did last year. I’m thinking historical data may not be as good a predictor of wait times or crowds as it used to be.
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The comparison historic data is still there just a little more difficult to access than previously. It’s now called “ What We Predicted vs. What We Saw” and is found by clicking the clock icon above the month to the left. Once landed on that page, click specific date and the comparison data is there.
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Wow, I don’t ever remember crowds being as over predicted as they have been lately! This must be the time lots of prognosticators were predicting when they said people would quit coming to Disney as they had previously! Bad for Disney, good for us, except when trying to generate a touring plan for the last week of May-
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Now that the Wine & Dine Half Marathon Weekend which used to be in November has been moved to the last weekend in October, do we foresee impact to the crowd calendar for that time?
Yea I have been going back on that page a few days. There’s a LOT of predicted 7s that end up actual 3s. We could say that’s just staffing/ throughput, maybe combined with the changes to DAS, but is it possible there are just that many fewer people in the parks?
Anyone on the ground to report what the walkways and QS places feel like?
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I was in WDW all last week and while it felt busy it did not feel super crowded. The last time I was there were level 8-9 crowd days, and I remember feeling those crowds constantly wherever we went. This week, at quick service places, we were pretty much able to get immediate mobile order times and tables wherever we went including at Satuli Canteen, Docking Bag 7, Casey’s Corner during the fireworks.
The only place I really noticed lines were in EPCOT at quick service locations - the food booths were pretty light, but quick service locations (France and Mexico in particular) felt busy.
We also never had to wait for a second bus or boat even at night or rope drop- this could have been just good timing, but was something I remembered from the last time I was in WDW.
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