Just to add, each crowd calander represents different things too. TP is more indicative of wait times feel vs actual people in the parks. Epcot can be packed but the lines manageable.
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My own perception from the past 15 years is that there is some truth to that.
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First update since February 1
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Got this email yesterday. All crowd levels for my two days yesterday went down by two points, except MK which went from 4 to 6. Not a bad deal I guess. I’d been wondering about the CL predictions, as there are dinning reservations galore.
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Going in december 2023. The most suprising park for me is HS. The rest of the parks are 4-7 for my mid dec week but hs seems to be a 9 daily. is hs really that bad compared to the rest?
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The lines are long because there aren’t a a ton of rides and most are considered headliners.
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Also, it will feel crowded too because it’s a smaller park.
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A couple things to note:
“between February 25th and September 4th, Touring Plans predictions average being 1.2 crowd levels too high every day”.
“Touring Plans underpredicted just 2% of the time, but overpredicted 28% of the time”.
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I’d probably argue that Touring Plans overpredicting rather than under predicting would likely be preferred if you tell me the data is definitely going to be inaccurate at least.
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Yep. I’m not sure about Disneys pricing structure being 100% reflective of what Disney expects the crowds to be though. I’m sure there is a bit more to it.
And TPs crowd calander is really a average wait time calander. This should reflect the over all crowd levels but things like festivals and weather can schew the data I’m sure.
I don’t mind an over prediction as long as it’s within a number or two. I will avoid a trip time if TP says the crowds will be over 7. But if in reality the crowds were a 5, I might be bummed I missed going at a prefered time.
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Just to add, it looks like TP really over predicted the Spring crowds. I loved going in Spring when the crowds were low. But if it’s going to be busy, I’ll adjust my days around.
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There are some confusing numbers and explanations in that article as pointed out in the comments.
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I just got an email yesterday for all the crowd calendar changes for my trip in June. I guess this is what that was from.
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Yes. First major update in 8 months!
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MK & AK CL’s revised lower going forward.
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