Crowd Calendar vs. FP Avail

I’m sure there has been a post on this, and if so, please feel free to send me to that post via link.

We are in WDW from 2/2-2/8 with park days being 2/3-2/7. We will be at HS on Tuesday 2/4. I know that CL is expected wait at key attractions from 11AM-5PM (at least I think that’s what it is).
*Current CL for HS on 2/4 is a 3/10.

My question is: Does FP availability for key attractions tell you whether the CL will be accurate? Our group has 5 people in it. Maybe the FP avail (see below). I’m mostly curious as I’m very scared about RD SDD.

Here are the following FP avail as of now:
SDD - none
TSM - 4:50, 5:10, 5:45
Alien - 4:40, 5:20, 5:40
RnRC - 4:50, 5:00, 5:35
ToT - 4:55, 5:20, 5:45

Do you already have fast passes on this day? I don’t think those FPs at this time tell you anything regarding crowd levels. I don’t expect SDD to be available during a low crowd time before 60 + 3.

I asked about if you have FPs already since it should not show you any available fast passes for a time you already have them.

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I do already have FP’s. I was able to find these times by modifying my TSM FP and checking avail.

FWIW, I used my laptop and did “Modify” on my TSM FP to see these times. I have used phone and app since posting this info, clicked “Change” (ride not time) and there are earlier FP’s for those rides I listed avail. Not sure why those two methods are showing diff avail.

Since your main concern is about rope-dropping SDD, I would just keep your fingers crossed and keep an eye out for a change in opening time for HS for your dates…and if that does happen, you’ll likely be able to modify your TSM FP+ to a SDD if you get on and make the change the same day the announcement comes out. Good luck!

Remember they open up fast passes on the day of. We were able to change a few of our times around. What messed us up was a very early boarding number and an 11am Prime Time reservation. If we had been able to get our Prime Time in the middle of the afternoon like I wanted and a later BG, then we would have had more success with our fast passes.

I don’t know if the availability of FPP is any indication of CLs.

I had to cancel all my HS FPP I made at 60+5 the night before and reschedule for 4 days later. I was able to pick up a RNR FPP for just after 9 am. Projected CL for that day was 10 and it actually was 10.

But our first HS day was amazing. The projected CL 10 never materialized. It was CL1! We got everything done between 8:45 am and 7 pm. This included riding TSM and TOT 2x and losing my phone and having to deal with CMs a few times.

But CLs are projected guesses based on past data. ROTR is messing up CL projections.

If you have your FPPs and a TP or at least a good idea what you will do, just go with the flow that day.

I don’t know if you saw what I wrote on our projected and actual CLs.

Different #s of fastpasses are released based on expected CL as well. Rides may operate with increased or reduced capacity. Also park operating hours will impact this as well.