Crowd Calendar prediction accurary

Hi Everyone

New to TP but have been to Disney multiple times however not for at least 6 years. I will be in Florida from Feb 21-March 5 and will be planning for 7-9 park days.

I’ve been looking at the crowd calendars and comparing it to the previous year at the same time to get an idea of what the actual vs prediction was and it seems that the actual was usually less than the prediction. Was there a reason for this? Could that still apply this time around?

When thinking about the economic situation, I wonder if that also might have an impact on supressing the crowds that would have been usually expected.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on this? Are the predictions usually conservative meaning reality is usually less?

1 Like

Welcome to the Forum!

I pay no attention to the crowd calendar. I plan for Level 9 wait times and get excited if it’s less. I avoid MK on Mondays since that tends to be MK’s most crowded day. Other than that, I pick parks based on the order I want to do them in.


This article highlights TPs predicting accuracy It is not the norm for Touring Plans to overpredict. 2022 Disney World Crowd Calendar Retrospective | Blog.

I would use the current 2024 calendar for your planning - if you get to a park on a predicted CL8, but it turns out to be a CL6, you will be pleasantly surprised.

I would not necessarily compare it to CLs predictions vs. Actuals from 2020-2023. Also note, when reading the article, that 2022 was full of revenge travelers.


Great job researching!

The 7-10 day period in very late February and very early March is one of the best times of the whole year to visit. TP does typically under predict that period for some reason, but they don’t usually underpredict all dates. It’s a small window between President’s Day week and the beginning of spring break, but usually very enjoyable and great weather too.