Because of some family stuff, I find myself with the option of heading to Disneyland this summer on Friday July 31st (but not getting to the gates until ~8:30) or Monday September 21 (when I could be in line half an hour before the park opens). I assumed the earlier start in September would be better, but I came to check the crowd calendar, and it’s showing a “4” for 7/31 (even though it’s a Friday in the height of summer), and a “7” for 9/21, even though the Sunday and Tuesday on either side are 5s.
Can anyone help me understand what’s going on with that? My best guess for September is Oogie Boogie Bashes on 9/20 and 9/22 driving up predictions for 9/21, but I have no idea what’s behind the 4s on Fridays in July.
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The motto of the last 10 years is that summer is the new “off season” at Disneyland. The reality is that locals have learned to spread out their visits more evenly throughout the year, with the single biggest factor being the AP blackout dates.
Oogie Boogie / Halloween is very popular so September has gotten much more crowded than it used to be.
July is hot and local APs are blocked so it is typically less busy than you’d think.
But it’s important to note that there is no off season anymore - all times are at least somewhat busy.
Last thing I’ll note is that an 8:30am arrival is still pretty good for Disneyland and I wouldn’t make a decision based on that.
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Ahh, I hadn’t realized that about the AP holders as a once-every-year-or-three visitor. That makes sense, thanks! Between that and having had enough Halloween time personally the past few trips, I’m definitely starting to lean towards July.
Last year I felt super cool walking on to Ride of the Resistance at 8:15 after rope drop and speed walking, but I suppose that was a particularly magical moment I shouldn’t expect to replicate every trip. 
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8:30 will put you behind the rope drop crowd if you a super headliner is your goal, but you can still have a short wait on a regular headliner. Rise of the Resistance usually has a shorter (40-minutes or less) for much of the day. The worst time to go is behind the rope drop crowd in the morning.
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I am this time, yes! So I’ll be able to take advantage of single rider lines, and if I decide to spring for a LL single pass I won’t have to multiply it x4.
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