Because of some family stuff, I find myself with the option of heading to Disneyland this summer on Friday July 31st (but not getting to the gates until ~8:30) or Monday September 21 (when I could be in line half an hour before the park opens). I assumed the earlier start in September would be better, but I came to check the crowd calendar, and it’s showing a “4” for 7/31 (even though it’s a Friday in the height of summer), and a “7” for 9/21, even though the Sunday and Tuesday on either side are 5s.
Can anyone help me understand what’s going on with that? My best guess for September is Oogie Boogie Bashes on 9/20 and 9/22 driving up predictions for 9/21, but I have no idea what’s behind the 4s on Fridays in July.
The motto of the last 10 years is that summer is the new “off season” at Disneyland. The reality is that locals have learned to spread out their visits more evenly throughout the year, with the single biggest factor being the AP blackout dates.
Oogie Boogie / Halloween is very popular so September has gotten much more crowded than it used to be.
July is hot and local APs are blocked so it is typically less busy than you’d think.
But it’s important to note that there is no off season anymore - all times are at least somewhat busy.
Last thing I’ll note is that an 8:30am arrival is still pretty good for Disneyland and I wouldn’t make a decision based on that.
Ahh, I hadn’t realized that about the AP holders as a once-every-year-or-three visitor. That makes sense, thanks! Between that and having had enough Halloween time personally the past few trips, I’m definitely starting to lean towards July.
Last year I felt super cool walking on to Ride of the Resistance at 8:15 after rope drop and speed walking, but I suppose that was a particularly magical moment I shouldn’t expect to replicate every trip.
8:30 will put you behind the rope drop crowd if you a super headliner is your goal, but you can still have a short wait on a regular headliner. Rise of the Resistance usually has a shorter (40-minutes or less) for much of the day. The worst time to go is behind the rope drop crowd in the morning.
I am this time, yes! So I’ll be able to take advantage of single rider lines, and if I decide to spring for a LL single pass I won’t have to multiply it x4.
That’s exactly right. I try to avoid the day sandwiched between After Dark events, as those days are historically crowded. My guess is two readons: 1) OBB people on their second day, and 2) people trying to avoid the OBB day due to short hours in DCA, and higher crowds in DL. Lots of reasons to go eith July 31!
To follow up - last Friday was amazing. I arrived around 8:30 and I did buy LL. I only waited in 3 lines that were longer than 20 minutes, and two of those could have been avoided with a different plan. (Peter Pan is Peter Pan though. ) I went standby on Rise after dinner and it only took me 16 minutes to get to the Rey room!
The last couple times I’ve been at the park have been in September, and being able to basically walk on to Haunted Mansion - and hear Grim Grinning Ghosts! - was an absolute joy. I went three times.
That sounds like a great trip. You got really lucky on the crowds: According to Touring Plans, both parks were a 1 on July 31. I feel like TP’s numbers are not a very good description of the crowds since they changed their model last July. A 2 feels like a 5 to me now. I know it’s not about “what it feels like”, but there still must be some difference between what a 2 and a 5 “feels” like, even if it’s determined by stand by times. I’m curious to know if the parks felt deserted to you, as that’s what I would expect of a 1. I might have to mentally start adding 2 points to their crowd predictions so that I have a better idea of what to expect.
The parks are never deserted anymore as even the formerly slow days are now more crowded than they once were so the issue here may be your expectations. A CL 1 these days does not feel deserted, but it feels much less crowded than a CL 5.
Exactly. Which is why I now plan to now add 2 points to TP’s projections to set my expectations, since past experience of a 1 felt deserted to me. A 5 is now pretty darned crowded feeling to me, since TP adjusted their scale a year ago.
I agree that a 5 can feel crowded, but the parks can get a lot more crowded than that. Have you ever been to MK on a 8+ CL day? Some of the walkways are packed and the pace of walking slows to a crawl!
When I was initially looking at my dates 7/31 was predicted to be a 4, but it was later adjusted to a 2, and it met my expecation for that. Single Rider certainly helped my lines here and there, but that “oh hey we’re in the Rey room already” experience was what made the biggest impression. I’ve never gone more often than ~once a year, so my data is limited. I wouldn’t say it felt dead because some things did have lines at some times, but it was just… really easy to get everywhere. I think the last time I breezed through stuff like that was a rainy January in the early 2000s.
I look at all these things as relative, and when I’m making plans I try to check data a month or two out for a day with that same TP CL to get an idea of what to expect. “What’s a 2” or “What’s a 6” has always been pretty nebulous to me anyway, given how often I go. TP certainly seems to be better at predicting one day to another than other sites I’ve checked - they were all predicting big crowds for 7/31, apparently because it was summer vacation and weekend adjacent.
Since I’m not a WDW fan and have only been there once, I haven’t. But I’ve been in DL and DCA on 10 days, during the holidays. Somehow I don’t mind it so much of it’s not hot, but combine that with heat, which leads to a lot of frustrated and grumpy guests, and I’m not a happy camper.
