Crowd calendar doesn't make intuitive sense to me

We are going to Disneyland Park for two days in August - a Monday and a Tuesday. The crowd predictor is predicting a 4 for California Adventure on the day it has early entry but a 7 on the day it does not have early entry. That seems strange - since we don’t have early entry, my instinct was to do DCA on the non-early entry day, but the crowd calendar says it will be less crowded when they have early entry.

any ideas on why this would be?

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Most people at DLR will not have early entry, and so they choose the opposite park to start. Many don’t buy park hoppers as well. This helps make the early entry park somewhat less crowded than a day without early entry.
But also, the crowd calendar isn’t particularly accurate at DLR. Hasn’t been for many, many years unfortunately.

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August is the start of Oogie Boogie Bash at DCA but I’m pretty sure those are Tuesdays and DCA early entry is Monday, so that doesn’t account for what you’re seeing.

If you don’t have park hopper, be aware that DCA may close early for the party.