I can’t imagine how difficult it must be to try to use statistical analysis to accurately predict crowd levels at theme parks. You would probably have better luck trying to predict the weather. Add in all the changes and new attractions that are going on at Disney and combine them with the increasing economy, and you can probably throw any previous statistical models out the window.
That said - and this is no slight to Touring Plans - until these statistical models level back out, you need to add at least (3) levels to whatever the crowd calendar is predicting - and in some cases more. We just returned on Monday from a 9-day trip to Disney World. We attended Magic Kingdom on 12/12 (Wednesday) where the crowd calendar predicted a (5) for that day. They had record attendance - 98,000 people. Their occupancy limit is 100,000. The only park that was actually close was our first day at Animal Kingdom and we believe that was only because it rained most of the day.
So do yourself a favor - make sure you pack your patience. Prepare yourself for the crowds so that you will not be frustrated or disappointed when they actually show up. And remember - you are there to enjoy yourself. Roll with the punches and make the best of it.
One final note - if you go in the flu season, you will most likely get the Disney Flu. Be prepared. Have some Tami-flu on hand if you are able. If not, see if your insurance plan covers Virtual Visits. You have to catch the Flu within 48 hours for TamiFlu to be effective. You will recognize the flu because one minute you will be fine, and an hour later you will have about 10 symptoms all at once. We picked it up on our last day - it was a grueling 16-hour drive home with two school-age kids…
Hope this helps someone!