I was being too vague - late at night, tough day, yeah.
I was thinking of what @Jeff_AZ was posting about the seroprevalence estimates and your question about given the above (seroprevalence) would you have thought this possible.
So I started wondering, given % what are we actually talking about in real numbers of people, (who might be needing hospitalizations).
Regarding the robotics numbers, those are mostly the numbers. There was some early talk of preserving anonymity but in a group of 40 kids (3 sets of siblings) across 3 high schools and home schooled, itâs difficult not to know whoâs actually positive at any one point. Given that covid is still a frequent topic of conversation amongst parents - who are providing meals 6 days a week - we pretty much know this always negative mom took care of that positive, sick kid and in this family dad was a real whiner while mom barely had symptoms, thanks to positive son, etc. And one recuperating non-vaxxed mom was dealing with too much fatigue to provide the meal she thought she could, 2 weeks+ out of quarantine while her son was back to cross country track practice. Holy cow - theyâre all boys.
8 folks out of perhaps 120. 6 vaxxed. But then 120 is awfully small to get any real meaning from.
Whatâs cracking me up is the 15 yoâs comment at the dinner table, âI havenât been able to taste for 4 days.â Up till that comment, his parents had no idea he wasnât feeling well (except he was feeling fine other than taste.) The dad says he himself felt odd/icky one day, after the sonâs announcement. Of course they all tested. Mom and other son negative and asymptomatic.
Yes, I have a friend (standard risk) that got a J&J in the spring and got a âfirstâ mRNA over the summer when questions arose about how well J&J would hold up to Delta. (I was on the fence myself, but saw boosters in the pipeline so decided to wait rather than complicate my vax record.)
Iâve heard a lot of anecdotal reports of healthcare workers that, knowing their level of exposure, got their boosters early by requesting them as âfirst shotsâ.
Conversely, the one person I know that had a bad reaction to the first dose and didnât initially get the second, eventually did when Delta showed up. I donât think I know anyone else that didnât get the second.
If we are substantially underestimating our unvaccinated population base, I think it means that, while our vaccines are still holding up well, there is more evasion going on then weâre realizing.
The difference between 13% being unvaccinated and 20% being unvaccinated is +50%.
In the top graphic, playing with my napkin %s, I think the âper 100kâ rates becomes unvaccinated 5.8, primary 0.8, boosted still roughly 0.1. So unvaccinated are still 7x more likely to die than primary series and 58x more likely to die than boosted, which is still very significant, but could explain why even areas that appear to have high vaccination rates have been struggling with the volume of hospitalizations. There are just more unvaccinated people than we are realizing.
Yeah, thatâs kind of what happened to us Jan 2021. After DH tested positive, DS17 told us heâd felt a little fatigued and sniffly the previous week but had attributed it to back-to-back soccer tournaments outside in the cold. But, yeah, the lack of taste thing seems a bit more obvious! Even to a teen!
Iâm planning to brave the dreaded tap lesson tomorrow b/c covid #s have gone way down here and theyâre doing a special event where the parents can watch virtually. Itâs the only time all year we can see her other than the big performance in June. DD10 does not want to go back b/c she thinkâs sheâs going to get sick and die. I feel badly that I have not been able to convince her that now that the #s are back to the way they were when we last went there, itâs probably ok. But I donât know that for sure, do I? The big kicker here is that masks arenât required and DD10 is pretty much the only kid in the class who wears one. But, she has a KN95 and there is good space to spread out in the room. Sheâs also fully vaccinated as of mid Dec. DH agreed with my taking her there. I figure Iâll drive her there and if she really doesnât want to go in I might consider leaving. I donât want to traumatize her but I also think sheâll be happier if she gets back in the groove of things. School went back in person for her, after 2 weeks virtual, around Jan 18 and things have been ok (so farâŚ)âŚ
I struggled sending mine back to dance, too but masking is required for everybody, still no vaccines for 5-11 kids so a little different in terms of risk. I wouldnât have without the masking rule. They are so, so happy to be back. I think youâll be glad you decided to go ahead. I pulled them back out (of everything) ahead our our trip so we wouldnât risk quarantine and they were pretty angry with me.
Hope you enjoyed your staycation. My idea of a holiday is anything that doesnât involve somebody asking me what weâre having for dinner. I get it 100%.
âŚand YAY Canada!! My kids finally have their first shot. I almost cried I was so relieved.
Anecdotally, we noticed that when our county had mass vaccine events where incentives were involved many came out to get their first shot. However, this population did not show up the same way when it came time for the 2nd shot.
Itâs possible of course that they went and got their 2nd shot somewhere else, but this could be one reason why some folks have had only one.
My daughter turned 5 last week and she got her first jab the day after her birthday. She was very excited about it and didnât even flinch when she got the shot. The nurse said she was the best patient sheâs ever had!
Now we just have our almost-three-year-old unvaccinated.
I think this is a really helpful framework from YLE for moving forward.
Iâm not sure Iâm onboard with indoor dining being in the orange category, but otherwise it seems pretty reasonable. Might add to avoid and/or mask at outdoor crowded events in red category.
We just got back from the tap lesson. Iâve learned not to trust the intel from DD10 as much as I have been. What I was told all December: âEvery single kid in tap except for me takes off the mask.â Adults didnât confirm or deny this at the studio. What I saw today over the virtual, once a year ,parent watch day stream: 7 out of 10 kids wearing masks, most of them all the time. What I was told when DD10 got out of tap: âOh, yeah, those kids always wear the mask.â !!! Sigh. I suppose itâs possible that some of them started wearing it again. Well, at least itâs safer than I thought, and I will feel ok bringing her weekly from now on, barring some other huge spike. I donât regret not bringing her during the major spike of omicron, though, b/c its high point had a 7 day avg here of 4,300 cases (in my county). Iâve felt safe bringing her to tap when it was around 150, although it typically is more like around 50 or less (before omicron).
I have a 10yo DS. He is very fond of âeveryoneâ statements (âeveryoneâ does this, âeveryoneâ gets to do that). I can totally see how this happened and you have my empathy!
I think it speaks well to our earlier discussion about dice rolls. It may be worth it to take certain dice rolls that are moderately higher risk, and while still keeping most of your dice rolls lower risk.
I think thatâs been socially really hard for our family, though. Lots of people seem to want to argue with our family âbut you are doing X, so you should also be willing to do Yâ.
For those that I donât want to get into a long discussion about dice rolls with (because I suspect they arenât really interested), my short-hand answer recently is âour family has a risk-budget, and we are currently spending basically all of it on in-person schooling and DS17âs soccerâ. Sharing in case that is helpful to anyone.
Yeah, Iâm still deeply disappointed that Disney hasnât announced loosening up changes far enough in advance for people to have some hope of modifying plans. Or, alternatively, transparently tie them to community metrics.
There are many times where that logic is sound, but in situations that are cumulative, I agree that it becomes âItâs because weâre already doing X, that we cannot also do Y.â
I think itâs good for every family to have a risk budget and really think it through. As long as thereâs an understanding that one familyâs budget is not going to match anotherâs necessarily. Each family can decide which dice rolls are worth it, how many to roll, and think about whether the dice are weighted in a certain way making some results more likely than others. People with different risk levels need to figure out how to coexist and not make each other mad.
