Coronavirus Outbreak: Part 3

I think this is a really helpful framework from YLE for moving forward.

I’m not sure I’m onboard with indoor dining being in the orange category, but otherwise it seems pretty reasonable. Might add to avoid and/or mask at outdoor crowded events in red category.

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We just got back from the tap lesson. I’ve learned not to trust the intel from DD10 as much as I have been. What I was told all December: “Every single kid in tap except for me takes off the mask.” Adults didn’t confirm or deny this at the studio. What I saw today over the virtual, once a year ,parent watch day stream: 7 out of 10 kids wearing masks, most of them all the time. What I was told when DD10 got out of tap: “Oh, yeah, those kids always wear the mask.” !!! Sigh. I suppose it’s possible that some of them started wearing it again. Well, at least it’s safer than I thought, and I will feel ok bringing her weekly from now on, barring some other huge spike. I don’t regret not bringing her during the major spike of omicron, though, b/c its high point had a 7 day avg here of 4,300 cases (in my county). I’ve felt safe bringing her to tap when it was around 150, although it typically is more like around 50 or less (before omicron).

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I have a 10yo DS. He is very fond of “everyone” statements (“everyone” does this, “everyone” gets to do that). I can totally see how this happened and you have my empathy!

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CDC is now separating BA.2 from the rest of the Omicron lineage.

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This thread is a really interesting approach to risk analysis.

It’s kind of a case study around this scenario:

https://twitter.com/bob_wachter/status/1491098591980843008?s=21

I think it speaks well to our earlier discussion about dice rolls. It may be worth it to take certain dice rolls that are moderately higher risk, and while still keeping most of your dice rolls lower risk.

I think that’s been socially really hard for our family, though. Lots of people seem to want to argue with our family “but you are doing X, so you should also be willing to do Y”.

For those that I don’t want to get into a long discussion about dice rolls with (because I suspect they aren’t really interested), my short-hand answer recently is “our family has a risk-budget, and we are currently spending basically all of it on in-person schooling and DS17’s soccer”. Sharing in case that is helpful to anyone.

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I am now preparing that mask requirements for my trip in 12 days most likely could be similar to last June (transportation only).

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I liked your analogy (and your wording), but I didn’t bookmark it.
Did anyone bookmark it and can tell me the post number??

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Here you go. (I remembered enough words I used for the search to ping easily.)

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Yeah, I’m still deeply disappointed that Disney hasn’t announced loosening up changes far enough in advance for people to have some hope of modifying plans. Or, alternatively, transparently tie them to community metrics.

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Super. Thank you :+1:t2:

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There are many times where that logic is sound, but in situations that are cumulative, I agree that it becomes “It’s because we’re already doing X, that we cannot also do Y.”

I think it’s good for every family to have a risk budget and really think it through. As long as there’s an understanding that one family’s budget is not going to match another’s necessarily. Each family can decide which dice rolls are worth it, how many to roll, and think about whether the dice are weighted in a certain way making some results more likely than others. People with different risk levels need to figure out how to coexist and not make each other mad.

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I wore a mask in every queue at Universal in September I will have no problem doing it in the crowds of President’s week. My KN95s are packed.

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And if on an occasion we choose to do Y it doesn’t mean that we will continue to always do Y. We can still choose not to do Y in the future.

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So…some expectation setting. Based on a couple different sources I’m listening to regarding the timing/availability of therapeutics…

These are going to be game changers for those high risk. But. They need to be taken as soon after symptom onset as possible. So, if you know anyone high risk, make certain they are discussing it with their primary doctor ahead of time (what their risk level is, how they will be prioritized, what steps they will need to take). Please don’t assume the doctor will be able to figure it out quickly on the fly. There are hoops to jump through, so at least make sure the risk assessment part is settled before it happens so can skip straight to the procurement steps. (Yeah, this is obviously going to further widen the gap in health care disparities.)

Availability for the high risk should be much better around September and forward, so that should give them some degree of risk relief.

But it’s unlikely availability is going to be high enough for those of general risk levels to have the therapeutics be easily accessible.

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Speaking of masks, I finally found good N95 masks that fit my fat face. They are the 3M Aura masks which I think someone here has mentioned before. I got a box of 20 for $25 at OfficeDepot using a 20% off coupon on their website. They are a little difficult to put on, but the large comfy foamy nose piece is awesome.

https://www.officedepot.com/a/products/7006752/3M-Aura-9205PH-20-DC-Particulate/

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Where do you hear rumblings of this change?

It will be a million times easier to have DH masking if it’s required. :grimacing:

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I think FL is a little behind (in cases) from the NE? The NE is rapidly falling in cases and mask mandates are being dropped.

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We’ll be there the same time. Given my kids’ reaction to our (NJ) governor’s plan to let districts decide about masks in March, we’ll be masked inside the entire trip, required or no. Let someone say something.

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Funnily enough, DH is 100% ok masking leading up to the trip so that we get to take it.

I will wear mine because I ain’t got no time for that business again. :tired_face:

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We have those same conversations. We spend our “risk budget” on in-person schooling and DD7’s activities (tennis, ice skating, theater, and gymnastics). We get a lot of … “If you are doing those activities, why won’t you do a playdate? They are about the same risk.” Yes, but risk is additive. That said, we plan to increase our risk budget after DS4 is vaccinated.

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