If Rt is smaller than 1, the pandemic is in a controlled state, if not it is growing exponentially.
The more people have been infected, the less work restrictions measures need to do (if 50% of a population had it, your measures could allow for a theoretical transmission rate of 2 before blowing up).
We know that there are some set of measures that are enough to keep R bellow 1 even when the population has not been exposed, but those are very costly.
It might mean the current proposed theoretical approach will work even faster. A lot of testing, contact tracing, measure Rt every week. If is lower than 1, decrease restrictions. If it is higher for a sustained period, return. Since measured Rt will already have the effects of any population immunity, more population immunity would gradually mean less measures.
I think they thought Covid was being spread by the touch. I heard a RCL Blog Podcast talk about this. Remember: they locked cruise guests in their staterooms to keep them safe. Then they pumped recirculated air in groups of rooms and infected all those people. They didnât know.
Tomorrow will be six weeks since my symptoms first developed and I am still struggling with this (lethargy and mental fog) as well as heavy headed and sporadic tightness in my chest. My husband was in the camp of this is âjust a coldâ and is the one who brought it home to us.
I am a firm believer that the masks work. At the first signs I was sick, I texted my SIL to let her know, since we were supposed to meet at my moms house the next day. My mom broke her foot on July 5 (her 80th birthday) and has been at a rehab facility since. We have been all helping take care of her home and cats. My SIL texted that she was fine to still meet and that we would both wear masks and it would be fine. During our meeting, we spent a significant amount time within 12-18 inches apart. No social distancing going on here. When I tested positive for Covid-19 I immediately texted my SIL. She and her son went and got tested and were both negative. I doubt that would have been the case had we not been wearing our masks.
My DS16 has ADHD and really struggled ending the last school year through distance learning, especially in math. He has a 504 and I am really curious how this is going to be implemented through the distance learning model for this school year especially if they are not able to return in November (which is their current plan). This year has been a little better since they are meeting every day for 25 minutes for each class and then have a 90 minute tutorial period where they can âmeetâ with their teachers for additional help. Last year they only met twice a week for each class, but the classes were 50 minutes each, which was too long for my son to stay engaged in an online platform. Wishing you and your daughter lots of patience and luck!
That makes sense, though what seems to happen is that restrictions are lifted, Rt goes up, and the authorities just wait for it to decline again rather than re-imposing any closures.
Although opening schools will definitely put their resolve to the test. I think they are more likely to re-insitute closures than wait it out, in that case.
To me, one corollary of Bedfordâs theory is that there may be no such thing as a safe reopening. If restrictions are lifted, cases will rise, until a new balance is struck between the two. The reason why reopening appears to have worked in the areas of the country that were harder-hit initially is that theyâve already reached the immunity required for their set of re-opening restrictions.
It makes sense to me that they thought that, because the prevailing viewpoint at the time was based on how the flu is transmitted, which is via droplets & direct contact. IMHO, the public health authorities tried to not mention the âaâ word for as long as they could, because at that time we also thought the fatality rate was around 3%. And there were not enough masks, either. The thought of the bug being airborne could have been just too much to handle then.
She just called me to vent. Her only class this year (at college - University of Redlands) that is fully asynchronous (no face to face with the professor even over zoom) is a stats class. Itâs her one and only math credit (required) and math is where her ADHD/learning disability is at itâs worst. Sheâs worried that this is going to be a disaster. She can do math, but it takes her a lot longer to fully grasp a concept. She needs the professor to be responsive and provide extra assistance. Weâll see how it goes!
So not to be the skunk in the garden party, but it has now been established by a case from Hong Kong that has been fully vetted by public health scientists that an individual that has had COVID-19, recovered, been without the virus for months, can get re-infected, and has (validation that it was not merely a lingering of the first infection was done by analyzing the variant and it had changes that made clear it was a second infection).
The reports do not necessarily mean that a vaccine would not help, but the whole issue of herd immunity just got more complicated, it seems.
I am NOT a public health scientist. Just conveying the report. Because Iâm absorbing the implications.
Un-evacuated (Lauraâs impacts on Houston were minimal-woot!)
Had a bald eagle make a couple of circles over us
Passed by a pasture with gazelles, zebras, and other exotics
Encountered Jonathan Van Ness filming at Starbucks
Had virtual meet-the-teacher by phone for DS10 twins
Probably watched/read way too many Laura damage reports. Houston was very lucky.
The positives from meet the teacherâŚ
DD19 and DS16 both had this teacher so we already have a positive relationship. She seems committed to just taking things as they come and letâs get the work done but being accommodating to how that actually happens, which is where Iâm trying to get myself centered. She is both their home room and math teacher. All of the kids in this home room/math class are distance learners. (So she wonât be teaching it as a âblendedâ class including both distance learners and on campus, which I thought would be very suboptimal and thought was the plan so I am pleased with that.) School starts Monday, but she said the main focus for next week will be on getting everyone set up and functional.
The less-than-positives
Next week (at least) will be all asynchronous. There are 36 kids in the class, whereas there are usually ~20-25. They all rotate as a block to a separate science teacher and an English/Social Studies teacher, but she wasnât really sure any specifics of how that would work and I havenât had any contact from them yet, let alone âspecialsâ classes like PE.
Shrug. One day at a time. I got their Teams accounts set up yesterday (the instructions/info needed were scattered in 3 different emails ) and need to do their Canvas ones before Monday. DS16 has his virtual meet the teachers tomorrow morning via Teams, 15 min per teacher. We have had zero contact from his physics teacher so not sure if that Teams will happen tomorrow or not. (The rest either had the Teams already created or had sent a link to request access.)
Thanks! I have no idea if the 2 things are related, but I do know we are not the only hospital facing a shortage after months of having plenty of reagent. I wish there was honesty about it as well, the mask dishonesty really caused some issues. We were discussing at work the other day about how back in April we would have been written up if we tried to wear a mask all day! We were told they were not necessary, when in fact they were but there just werenât enough of them. The CDC did a lot of damage saying they werenât needed. Now we would be written up if we didnât wear one.
I went back and ETA a frame from the video clip DH got. I only caught a glimpse from the parking lot (pets in the car so needed to leave running for AC) but the rest of the family got to gawk a bit. They were all pretty star struck. He seemed just like his on-air personality.
Glad you were spared any impacts! My sister lives in The Woodlands and she says they have been having doing rolling blackouts to preserve electricity for essential services due to power supply disruption from LA. Have you had any blackouts in your area?
I think theyâre actually brownouts, not blackouts (small blessings!), and I really donât understand the situation and why we arenât impacted at all but others are? We havenât noticed any issues in the ~12 hours weâve been home. The news stories originally only said Montgomery County but then added Galveston County (weâre in Brazoria) so Iâm not sure what the deal is exactly. DH thinks one of his co-workers is impacted but had trouble before Laura even approached? Shrug. 2020.
Certainly complicates the whole schools reopening thing.
) and need to do their Canvas ones before Monday. DS16 has his virtual meet the teachers tomorrow morning via Teams, 15 min per teacher. We have had zero contact from his physics teacher so not sure if that Teams will happen tomorrow or not. (The rest either had the Teams already created or had sent a link to request access.)
. How was Jonathan? He seems so nice!