This is spot on. They waited until there was a solid body of evidence on the impact of vaccinations on transmission, not just on the original variant but also some of the more recent ones, especially as B.1.1.7 has become dominant in the US just in the last 6 weeks or so. Efficacy in a trial is one thing, effectiveness in a widespread vaccination campaign against mutating variants is another.
What is already known about this topic?
Clinical trials suggest high efficacy for COVID-19 vaccines, but evaluation of vaccine effectiveness against severe outcomes in real-world settings and in populations at high risk, including older adults, is needed. What is added by this report?
In a multistate network of U.S. hospitals during JanuaryâMarch 2021, receipt of Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines was 94% effective against COVID-19 hospitalization among fully vaccinated adults and 64% effective among partially vaccinated adults aged â„65 years.
If one takes the time to read back through the summaries, the solidifying of data around transmission is visible.
@Pod I think this may be a key part of the answer to your question âWhat changed?â that led to the guidance change:
What is added by this report?
Data from six models indicate that with high vaccination coverage and moderate NPI adherence, hospitalizations and deaths will likely remain low nationally, with a sharp decline in cases projected by July 2021. Lower NPI adherence could lead to substantial increases in severe COVID-19 outcomes, even with improved vaccination coverage.
Exactly, but do you see my point that itâs not really a penalty bc you canât tell? If you have 2 people in a store that doesnât require masks, 1 vaxed 1 unvaxed, and they are both unmasked is anyone going to say anything? Probably not, so no âpenaltyâ for the unvaxed. If those same 2 people hop on a plane both have to wear a mask so the vaxed person has no benefit of being vaxed bc they have to wear a mask too. Essentially we are all benefiting or penalized one in the same.
Does letting everyone run around unmasked increase the perceived risk of infection maybe? Maybe it gets the fence sitters and procrastinators just enough uncomfortable they will get theirs?
Itâs certainly doing that for me and my unvaccinated DS11s. DH actually brought back up the idea of just getting them vaccinated regardless. We wonât for Disney. We may for fall if spread is still significant and their school isnât requiring masks.
They may just be giving up convincing those set opposed to the vaccines. Move on to how to mitigate them being too large a risk to others. They may cause us to be the reason we have to mask indefinitely on places like airplanes, depending on how herd immunity works out when under 12s become eligible.
Time to get on with vaccinating the rest of the world in the meantime.
This is my exact thought when I heard the announcement last week. They are giving up on the 18+ set and focusing on children now in hopes of hitting herd immunity.
I think that because cases, hospitalizations and deaths are going down as more people get vaccinated, they felt it was time. They are focusing on getting more people vaccinated in general to protect as many people as possible, but I do not think that they are giving up or trying to reach a goal of herd immunity.
â But now, as an academic debate swirls over when or even if America can get to a high enough percentage of people with immunity to reach that goal, some scientists say itâs time for the public to stop worrying about it.
âI think weâre focusing too much of our time, our effort, on quibbling over a number,â
They want to get rid of the misconception there is a fixed, knowable, consistent percentage where this ends. We need to get as many people vaccinated as fast as possible to reduce spread. That will bring us to a place where we approach pre-Covid normalcy. The less spread, the more likely that is. Itâs still going torward herd immunity, but not as a specific number.
The article also mentions that herd immunity is not the end game, as that can change, as we have seen with the measles. So no, I donât think they are shooting for traditional herd immunity. As you said, they are trying to get as many people vaccinated as they can.
I also donât think they are giving up on adults. PA will not fully lift the mask mandate on the state until 70% of ADULTS are fully vaccinated. I donât think that is because of herd immunity, but just to try to get more people vaccinated (although I think it was too late in the game for this to work).
Houston health experts still think 70% of the entire population is a good number to shoot for (including naturally acquired immunity) and that weâll be able to get there once under 12s are eligible per these slides:
Of course, higher would be better.
ETA: It will probably become an obvious pattern at some point, likely with some variables like population density, what percentage is needed to grind down the spread, as they compare vaccinations/seroprevalence across communities.
Oh, and Houston has had their Covid threat level reduced from red to orange. I think itâs been at red for 11 months?
âAt this level, unvaccinated residents should minimize contact with others, avoiding any medium or large gatherings, and only visiting permissible businesses that follow public health guidance. Unvaccinated individuals should continue to mask, physical distance, and avoid all medium and large gatherings,â the county states.
The threat level guidance continues, âFully vaccinated individuals may resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, except where required by federal, state, local, tribal, or territorial laws, rules, and regulations, including local business and workplace guidance.â
I think Iâm seeing a lot of talking past each other on the GMA piece with Fauci. What may be dubious about that to me is he admitted his recent personal mask use is more imagery than science. He suggests his recent motivation was of what signal he was sending rather than what was scientifically necessary for him as a fully vaccinated person. I realize many donât see any issue with that, but some do. As simple as that.
I agree with lots of information having changed over the months and most officials generally having the best of intentions during a difficult time. I also see that the CDC has had messaging/optics problems of different types since day 1 across two vastly different administrations. More confusion than there had to be in my opinion. Thatâs all.
Thatâs exactly what I heard. Personally, if someone is going to give me medical advice with such fervor and consequence, I prefer honesty, full disclosure, and transparency first and foremost, then unity.
until the recent studies came out about the vaccines and variants, and we found out my daughter got the vaccine, I was also wearing a mask even though fully vaccinated. Mostly to protect my child, a bit to protect myself, and some to support mask wearing. Mask wearing to me has been something that may help me and others. It worries me that folks who do not want to get vaccinated also might not want to wear masks. At this point the under 12âs in my life cannot get vaccinated and some have health issues that put them at higher risk. Even if they are masked the people who are not vaccinated and not masked put them at risk. I donât want anyone punished for not wearing a mask while not vaccinated but I also donât want people who canât get vaccinated or who are immune compromised yet getting sick. Itâs all so messy with an airborne disease.
It is as simple as that for me and mine. We donât take lying lightly.
Exactly.
I have a worldview that has an extremely high standard for Truth, and recognizes lies as a product of the Enemy. Truth has been my explicit on-my-knees-prayer from the get-go.
DH actually brought back up the idea of just getting them vaccinated regardless. We wonât for Disney. We may for fall if spread is still significant and their school isnât requiring masks.