Do you see those eyes?? Those are her begging eyes. So far shes gotten a small piece of ground pork, a cube of cooked sweet potato, a little bit of shredded cheese and did jump down to clean the floor after I dropped a spoon with cooked spinach on it 
then she left and the cat took her place.
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Apparently Pfizer is recruiting trial participants in our area, especially ages 12-17.
I was thinking about discussing with DH the possibility of enrolling DS16. It seems like a great way to contribute to the cause.
But hereās what gives me pause.
Itās a two year commitment, randomly assigned to either receive the vaccine or a placebo. We wouldnāt know which.
Iām assuming that would preclude him from actually getting vaccinated during that time. If airlines have travel restrictions requiring immunization, wouldnāt he be barred from travel then? What if his college requires it? What if his high school requires it for senior year?
And do I really want him going around potentially unvaccinated when all kinds of restrictions get relaxed because most people are vaccinated? Heās low risk for complications, but stillā¦
And that got me to thinking about the ethics of having a placebo group in highly vulnerable populations. For instance, if the IFR for those 70+ is 5%, Iām struggling with any of them being given a placebo. Prior to vaccine approval for initial trials, that makes sense, but do they continue that after approval?
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all of this is good to question, Iām sure theyāve considered it though andā¦ the participants are made awareā¦ they are volunteers after all. But it still feels off
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Perfect !
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Yeah, I can see where your DS16 could be impacted in a ways that arenāt optimal - not even considering disease-ish.
As for 70+ involved in a 2 year placebo/vaccine program, as long as the participants understood they could be receiving a placebo and the program lasts 2 years, I personally would not be concerned, ethically. Most 70+ folk have been thru risks aplenty to get where they are. Probably a decent percentage have served in the military in conflict of some sort. Not speaking for all, what constitutes risky can change.
The more Iāve mulled it over, I do have a vague recollection of some treatment trial a while ago (not related to Covid), where the initial results were so overwhelmingly positive that they scrapped the trial and gave all the placebo participants the treatment because they said it would be unethical not to. The data to be gleaned by keeping the placebo control in place just wasnāt worth the detriment to the individuals. Now, granted that was for people that already had a condition, so it was a bit more certain they would have detriment, but I wonder if they might invoke the same approach for those at highest risk for Covid complications?
ETA: Ok, found this on NIH website. Not sure how it applies to vaccinations as itās more targeted towards treatments.
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After more thinking about 70+ being in a placebo trial, it occurred to me that the most scary thing about such a situation, from a 70+ point of view, could be medical costs.
From your DS16 point of view, itās mostly missed opportunities, given that IF a 16 yo were to become ill, theyād most likely recover.
From a healthy 70+ point of view, mounds of medical debt is almost the scariest part of getting sick - of any kind of sick. This is a small concern of ours even having such an excellent Medicare supplement weāve yet to have copays.
Which reminds me, my sister and I were discussing the list of who gets vaccinated first that was posted here - what last week? 
and now itās a ways back in post count.
Sheās employed by a hospital but no longer considered frontline. From the list, sheās in the last group to be vaccinated - not a worry. We were merely being amazed at apparent gaps if you will in whoās getting vaccinated when.
It quickly occurred to us, in less populous areas probably all hospital employees would be vaccinated in the same group, if that worked better for utilizing the prepared vaccines in a timely manner. Whichever, weāre looking forward to seeing how the vaccinations proceed in rural areas.
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Wall Street Journal today on the same dilemma causing people to drop out of studies.
On another note my child with the flu seems to be running at 100% and everyone else is doing fine. 
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Yeah, although blind randomized trials are the gold standard, Iām not sure thatās going to be practical with how this is all playing out. They may have to settle for the less ideal tracking of those who choose not to get the vaccine instead.
I spent some time today diving deeper into the distribution recommendations and pondering timing.
CDC is looking heavily towards the National Academy of Medicine for their guidance. (They were the source of the graphic I posted awhile back.)
NAM has a lengthy document on their website I didnāt attempt, but here is a summary document:
More detailed graphic from that:
A few tidbits of interest from the accompanying text that were new or clarifying for me:
āPhase 1b also includes all older adults living in congregate settings, includingā¦multi-generational householdsā
Young adults is defined as 30 and under (Previous graphic from NAM defined older adults as over 65)
Significantly higher risk=defined as having two or more of the conditions listed by CDC as being associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19 (Moderately higher risk=1 such condition)
CDC severe risk conditions are described here:
So that should give everyone a pretty good idea of the phase for themselves and those around them (keeping in mind this could be subject to the whims of individual states actually doing the distributing).
I did some extremely fast-and-loose napkin math using the optimistic notion we could reach 70% vaccinated by end of May and more conservatively by end of July. Itās very iffy math since we know not everyone will opt in, but I suspect the earlier phases will have higher participation rates than the less at-risk people in the later phases.
So here is my napkinās preliminary projections of a VERY rough timeframe of when those in each phase might receive their first dose.
Phase 1a - Dec
Phase 1b - Dec-Jan
Phase 2 - Jan-Mar (optimistic), Jan-Apr (conservative)
Phase 3 - Feb-Jun (optimistic), Mar-Aug (conservative)
Phase 4 - Apr-Jun (optimistic), Jun-Sep (conservative)
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Hereās the one from a week ago that we were looking at. Similar to the one you just posted. This one has percentages which seem might be off - particularly the last one: everyone else. A person whoās between 30 and 65, with no morbities, that works in an office on a computer messing about with spreadsheets might fall in that last category.
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Did your napkin take into account the shelf life of the vaccines? Iām sure I have the wrong vocabulary, but a box of one kind of vaccine produces 1000 doses, if Iām recalling correctly, which then needs to be administered within 5 days. This shelf life would seem to facilitate speedy vaccinations.
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The assumptions I used were that 40M doses really would be available in December (per Azar) and then just figured out how many additional doses would need to be available to reach 70% herd immunity by May or July per speculation in this article.
Of course, there are a lot of really significant factors at play that will impact the timing, but the two questions that I was interested in for myselfā¦
When will my parents (one Phase 1b, one Phase 2) likely be vaccinated? (Pondering if I could do a quick plane trip to visit them once that happens, or possibly whole family for Spring Break, assuming weāve gotten through this next peak by then. My mom is really struggling as my stepdadās caretaker and itās starting to take a toll on her health. Looking forward to our Christmas visit was really giving her something to hold on to. Knowing when a replacement trip could happen might help.)
Is there any chance we would send our kids back to on campus learning for the last 9 week grading period? I think we will need to make that decision in late February. A big factor in our choosing virtual was to reduce risk to staff, so was curious if staff would all potentially be vaccinated by then (Phase 2).
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Speaking from a couple in the same phases as your parents, yes, it really does help me to know and focus on the date of the next family get together.
Even if itās only a best guess. Itās a stepping stone to a firm next trip date. Maybe your mom feels the same.
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Ho ho ho dr Fauci just announced that Santa is immune and cannot catch the virus and will be able to deliver Christmas 
joy. NBC evening news
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I also heard that itās just fine to assume your Elf on the Shelf is part of your family bubble, but to be on the safe side, you still canāt touch him/her.
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Ok, who had āCovid infected Danish minks rise from the deadā on their 2020 oddities bingo card? 
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