“We have a group of people who say we should steer clear of cruise ships or steer clear of airports, steer clear of certain ethnic groups and steer clear of other things,” Michael Ryan, a member of WHO’s emergency committee, said Monday. “We have to be really careful here. There’s no zero risk in the world for anything.”
He said the public health approach must manage the risk of the virus yet allow society to operate.
I’m hoping to get a steal on a Caribbean cruise in the late summer.
There are about four authorities in there, they all have a different opinion about it.
WHO will never, ever say anything that disrupts the normal functioning of the world in any way. They advocate for third-world countries, not for us. The third world is very dependent on commerce from the developed nations.
For instance, they don’t support travel bans- not air travel bans either- I think this epidemic will put that theory to the test. Compare Europe and the US in a month and we’ll see.
I’m (tongue-in-cheek) looking forward to seeing what will happen to the Americans who refused to leave. I doubt they will leave the ship, head to the airport, get on a plane and head right to their home airports. I think there is zero chance they won’t have another stateside quarantine.
Got it. And maybe the article has been edited since you first read it. What I see again and again is an avoidance of a travel ban. And that makes sense. The folding of the cruise industry would be economically devastating for the ships’ crews and their families as well as the ports. The spreading of this virus would be equally devastating, to be sure. It’s really hard to make a recommendation.
But a traveler has to understand WHY they don’t advocate a travel ban. That’s not to benefit you- it’s to benefit the folks involved with the cruise industry. That’s a legitimate public health concern. It’s just not my concern, as a doctor who lives in a little town.
It completely depends on one’s point of view. World health experts say, don’t stop travel. Individual people- well it’s just a vacation- maybe I’ll stay home and go to a national park instead.
So I have a Disney Cruise at the end of May and just found out that someone in my party is traveling to Japan a couple weeks before our cruise. Right now DCL is restricting anyone who has traveled to China in the past 14 days (and Bahamas restricts for 20 days). Chances that Japan will be added to the list by end of May?
Japan is going to have a wave of infections, it’s already started. Just since our convo abt. the Olympics, athletes are starting to cancel. And this cruise ship probably isn’t adding significantly to that burden, by the way. It was already there.
Now, the question will be- when do we stop banning travel from other countries? At some point, it’s going to be Africa (though we may not know until it’s too late). It’s going to be Europe. We can’t ban the world. And, maybe we’ll find out, with better data that’s NOT from China, coronavirus isn’t so bad.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Japan. I’m not certain a travel ban from there will be forthcoming. That doesn’t mean I’d travel there, of course.
Watch for travel advisories (those are different from a ban) from the State Department. If there are any, I think your friend needs to reconsider.
PS. You might want to sign up for travel alerts. I always register with the State Department when I travel abroad so they can notify me if something comes up. But you can do this for any destination, even if you’re just thinking about going.
I hope this subsides in the summer. I only have land travel vacations planned but my DH is a bit of a worry wart and I’m afraid he’ll want us to cancel as a precaution. If it becomes a pandemic, I agree that we’ll probably get it anyway so you may as well go.
Death rates on under 50 are very low if that’s any reconciliation and 80% of cases are mild.
The only caveat I have there, is those are 80% of hospitalized patients where the disease is mild. They’re still in the hospital. Kind of a doctor definition of “mild” if you ask me.
Where did you see that’s in reference to hospitalizations. I read and interpreted that there were just from diagnoses not hospitalizations. They say the numbers might be higher because some people don’t know they have it and it’s little more than a cold. I’m not arguing here - just trying to my facts straight.
Because the Chinese are so short of people and supplies that they only diagnose and treat the sickest patients. I’ve read the original studies. If you’re walking around with sniffles, you’re not going to the doctor in China. You’ve got to be sick to even be seen, and even then they might not have room to treat you.
So that would mean the percentage of serious cases is actually smaller than 20%, right? Since there are many people who have it who aren’t even counted in the 80% “mild” category because they weren’t even diagnosed?
Yes. But also people are dying at home and they’re not counted, either.
So who the heck knows. We have to see non-China data. Much clarity will come over the next month, I think.
Seriously, we have no idea what’s going on over there. They say there have only been 2000 deaths. ORLLY? Who locks down 10% of the world’s population over 2000 deaths? This does not compute.
