Confused: Lower crowd level = longer wait times


#1

So i am mapping out HS on two different days - one day has a crowd level of 5 and one has a crowd level of 6. neither dates have extra magic hours - the predicted park hours are exactly the same

The day with the CL of 6 has shorter wait times than the CL of 5.

any thoughts as to why???


#2

E-mail webmaster@touringplans.com about this one, including the plan URLs. They are usually quite quick in getting back with answers.


#3

okay thanks


#4

Both with the same exact order of events?


#5

same order


#6

Yeah then that’s weird.

Can you share here? I’d be curious to look at that.

It shouldn’t be related, because crowd level is specifically to reflect wait times, but I wonder if the algorithm understands the concept of reduced capacity resulting from lower crowd levels?


#7

okay, i’ll moved some things around to on the plan that’s now saved, so let me recreate the issue. How do i share the plan?


#8

in the general information box, where you select plan times and give it a name, there is a box in the lower left that says “Publish this plan?” Click that. When the page reloads, in that same box will be an url and it will say “share this url” Paste that here


#9

If it did this it could get stuck in an infinite loop: predicted wait times determine CL, which determines capacity reduction factor, which adjusts wait times, which determine CL, which determines capacity reduction factor…

Also, at the moment there probably isn’t enough data to determine what the capacity reduction factor is for a given initial predicted CL. At any rate, I believe that the algorithms are self-correcting, in that over time the predictions will adjust to take into account the new reality at the parks, so there would be no need for a capacity reduction factor anyway.


#10

Wednesday’s plan (Crowd level of 6): https://touringplans.com/plans/print?id=2944031

Monday’s plan (crowd level of 5): https://touringplans.com/plans/print?id=2944212


#11

It might be that reduction in predicted crowds can lead to less CM’s on duty, which means rides are not running to capacity, hence longer wait times.


#12

interesting point…


#13

I would suggest starting your FP’s later and doing launch bay and flying saucers 3rd & 4th


#14

I think it has to be reduced CM’s. As I put on an earlier post our HS day in May started as a 5 and dropped to a 1…and the wait times increased in total for the day by over 30 minutes. Less CM’s and less ride capacity is about the only explanation.


#15

This was the question I posed earlier but it doesn’t really make sense.


#16

No, it can’t be that, because predicted wait times are what determines the CL, not vice-versa. Higher wait times should mean a higher CL. I suspect that something is amiss here technically, which is why I suggested e-mailing the webadmin.


#17

You cannot go by Crowd Levels. These numbers come from statistical data that is skewed and not accurate because of the Pandora attractions which are still in their first year of running. This throws numbers completely off.