Boarding group odds

Has anyone calculated the odds of getting a BG right now? Trying to level set myself and my group on the odds of getting a BG, so was curious roughly how many people get to ride ROTR on an average day vs the average number of people being let in each day. Is it 25% of park guests, 50%, 75%, etc.

Also, we will be a group of 10 (3 different families with 4 MDE accounts). Can everyone try for BG or better to just have 1 person try for whole group?

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My quick estimate would be:

Pre-covid ride capacity (assuming it’s running perfectly with no stoppage) = 1500/hr or so
Current ride capacity (with 1 party for ride vehicle) = 750/hr ??
750 x 9 hrs = 6,750/day

I’ve seen HS capacity listed as 60,000 (which may or may not be accurate).
25% is 15,000, which might be a typical crowd right now since many days are selling out the park reservations. Maybe 2,000 or so of that are not trying for a BG.

So 6,750/13,000 = ~52% chance of BG, all other things equal. (A lot of assumptions in that number though.) Others may have a better estimate.

I think the best strategy with 10 is for multiple people trying for the entire group with MDE’s linked. Improve the odds equally for everyone to get one, otherwise there’s the chance of some getting one but not others.

ETA: Also, trying separately has the risk of everyone getting one, but at vastly different times, really throwing a wrench into your touring plan.


Everyone can log in and try to get a BG. The first one to succeed will block the others.

The odds? I don’t know. I do know that if the ride was running at full capacity, instead of one party per vehicle, then pretty much every guest would get one at the moment. But they don’t release that many because of the reduced capacity. Plus the reliability issues remain.

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DisneyFoodBlog did a poll about this question, just this week! They found that 77% of people who responded to their poll were unable to get a BG on their visit to DHS.

We had a group of 8, with 6 people trying for BG. We also had one phone displaying the world clock. We had 2 people assigned to press go at 10:00:01, a different 2 people at 10:00:02 and the last 2 people at 10:00:03. One of each partnership was on wifi, one on cellular. Both days we tried for BG it was the person on wifi, at 10:00:01 who got the BG. The first time we were near the big Andy at the entrance to TSL and the second time we were in the outdoor portion of the line for TSMM, near the drinking fountains.

And both times our group was partially given the BG, but it was different people each time. MDE was just weird with how they populated the group for us. But we talked to the CM outside of RotR when our BG was called, let them know that MDE left some people off of the BG, and they were able to easily add the other members to our BG. I also tried to do it at GS earlier in the day, and they said they were unable to help with it, and we should just try again at 2pm.

I don’t know the odds, but when I was there mid-Sept, my group of 4 failed our 2 attempts to get a BG. I can also tell you that at 10 and 2, most of the people around you are doing the same thing, and from reactions of those around me, not so many were successful. Purely anecdotal, of course, but if I were headed back soon, I would keep my expectations low, notwithstanding all the instructions about world clocks and wifi and refresh and which second. . . :slight_smile:


I love this well thought out operation so much! :star_struck:

I made my husband “practice” from home with me over the weekend. I had MDE pulled up, he had the world clock. It got to 9:59:50 and he starts asking questions about if he should count backwards from 10 or should he say 51, 52, 53… By the time he figured out the countdown it was 10:02 :rofl::rofl: I think we’ll be practicing our operation again this weekend.


Haha. That’s hilarious! Yeah, we are THAT kind of family. A family of planners and loving logistics. :slight_smile:


I was doing some reading on Boarding Group procedures and came across this data in an article:

Number of Boarding Groups to ride by day:

  • 9/14/20: 35
  • 9/13/20: 35
  • 9/12/20: 39
  • 9/11/20: 79
  • 9/10/20: 96
  • 9/9/20: 97
  • 9/8/20: 88
  • 9/7/20: 122
  • 9/6/20: 93
  • 9/5/20: 127
  • 9/4/20: 106

For more details look here:

I like this math and think 50% is a decent guess for how many people on average get a BG. It might be a little higher since some guests don’t try to ride for whatever reason (already ridden it a different day, too short, not interested, etc.).

I take issue with the way they did their poll. They asked readers (many of whom are APs or frequent visitors) if they ever didn’t get a BG on one of their attempts on any trip. If you asked “have you ever successfully gotten a BG on a trip” the response would probably be over 90%. But neither question tells you much.

They could ask approximately what is your success rate for attempting to get a BG (which I did on this forum once pre-COVID). But the only way to get a good reading would be for Disney to release their data.

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My husband and I were just there on 10/13 and we both tried at the 10am drop and weren’t successful. I went and stood with guest services (LOL) for the 2pm drop and asked them if it was better for both of us to try or just one of us and they highly recommended only one of us try, bc he said if both us try it is more likely to error out b/c we are essentially blocking each other out. That said, I ended up being the only one to try, i refreshed the virtual queue page right at 1:59 (per recommendation of guest services guy… i literally made him watch me do it LOL) and got boarding group 68 and was on the ride 2 hours later! This whole thing definitely seems like one big lottery but the guest services guy’s recommendations DID help us haha so whoooo knows.


If they use this same approach to virtual queues for MFSR (as recently forewarned by a blogger), I’d expect that’d throw a massive wrench in the lineups at ToT and SDD. Blue milk and droid building isn’t really going to keep people in Galaxy’s Edge, is it?

Here is the link to my old poll. I may need to update this for COVID! In pre-pandemic times, almost everyone was getting a BG who tried.

So I answered 100 percent then, and still am 100 percent for the day during my visits since reopening. One time in July it was at the 2pm drop (though that was because we were late to the park and tapped in right when the drop happened), but we got one at 2 and still rode. Last week easily got BG 25 at 10.


I just added a new thread with an updated poll!

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