I’m new here, so I’m not sure if this is the right place for this.
I’ve been following the crowd calendar for DW in Aug, in anticipation of a trip Aug 24. There are some rather odd apparent anomalies between the crowd calendar and park availability calendar. Firstly, availability has been saturated in some parks (MK and HS) on many weekdays, but not weekends, throughout the month. what’s up with that?
Secondly, the limited availability suggests some crowd calendar projections may be way off. Aug 23, for example, has overall crowd projections of 2, MK at 2 and HS at 2. Yet both parks are fully booked. It seems to me that pent up demand is pushing out beyond the local school year. Do the calendars need a serious update?
The information here is great, but touring plans, early entry strategy and use of Genie Plus are all somewhat elastic based on crowds. Any advice appreciated. Cheers
Welcome! You are exactly at the right place.
- The current Crowd Calendar predictions are for the most part mimicking the actual Crowd Levels from 2019. So it’s not accounting for revenge travel, which is still happening.
- Touring Plans has not done a CC update since late winter. (There is supposed to be an update coming out any day now)
- Actual CL’s have been averaging 2 levels higher than predicted. But, the MK predictions have been pretty accurate though. So expect more moderate crowd level days than low.
- Wait times have been consistently slightly lower on weekends than weekdays. Some factors include many visitors traveling on weekends, so lower attendance then, and Disney having more staff on weekends.
- Disney may show MK and HS (currently most popular) as unavailable, to try to get more people to book at AK and EP to spread out the visitors more.
- MK and HS are not really “sold out”, and will most likely release more availability in the coming days. Disney just wants you to think they are sold out.
- Disney probably has less staff in late August because some CM’s are seasonal.
Thanks! That is a thorough, informative, yet succinct explanation. I particularly like the term “revenge travel”, especially since I’m meeting my ex brother-in-law in Disney. Seems apropos.
Is TP using capacity limit achievement as a data point to estimate/update crowd levels? Glancing at the recent crowd levels it appears to be a pretty good predictor of heavier crowds at all parks when one hits capacity.
It’s not because park capacity has more to do with balancing out the parks and staffing - it’s not fixed. I’ve seen days at “capacity” that range from CL4 to CL9. So I don’t think it’s an accurate measure.
You’re welcome! I’ll add to what Mike said:
“Capacity” is a relative term. Disney may make it appear that they hit capacity at certain times of the year. But usually, full capacity is really only reached around Christmas.
No, TouringPlans does not use Disney’s park reservation data to help forecast Crowd Levels. (Although they do keep track of the dates that Park Reservations sell out.) TP mostly use historical data that they have gathered over the years from users. They also factor in school calendars, certain park events, etc.
To be clear, CL’s are determined from forecasted wait times at attractions, not from predicting actual crowds/attendance numbers.
Late to responding here, but to add what was said above, the misconception is that park capacity for APRs is the same each day, and that it refers to the the most people that are allowed in the park. But instead, Disney uses many (some unknown).factors in determining park capacity. Staffing is a primary one. If they know staffing will be short, or they aren’t sure, for example, they may reduce park capacity to ensure they can accommodate guests. I just saw one video mention recently that for Disney where there is a sweet spot…a point where allowing more people in the park beyond a certain amount actually can result in LESS revenue, not more…so they are likely setting APR availability to hit that financial sweet spot.
Point is, trying to align APR availability to an actual CL is somewhat futile. At this point it is probably easier to look at the past year’s historical CLs for the same week you plan to be there. Not perfect, but better than other means at thos point…at least until TP updates their CL predictions taking into account latest trends.
Has food and wine added to the weekend spike at Epcot like it had in the past?
Next question-is TL more crowded on weekdays or weekends?
Maybe more crowds, but doesn’t really increase attraction wait times much.
Thanks for great replies all. Looking forward to the updates and putting my Touring Plans to work.