We will be staying at ASMu in January and I was wondering if the rooms are ready before the normal 3pm check-in time? We haven’t been to WDW since January 2020 but in all of our previous trips our room was always ready when we arrived at the resort. We will be arriving to the resort around 1pm.
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Sometimes.
And sometimes not.
I wish I could be more specific but it really is variable.
I do think it has been better recently.
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In MDE you can put in your estimated arrival time. I always put it in for first thing in the morning. It doesn’t always work but it might give a nudge to getting a room sooner than later. Also, you can go to the front desk and ask for a room that is available ‘now’ rather than the one they have assigned to you, but it might not be in a desirable area.
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For those traveling in from outside the area, MDE does seem to get notification of when you’ve arrived nearbyish. This method definitely works for locals and for resort split stays (my RR room was ready at just after 8am when we moved over from CCV) but when you’re coming in from out of the area it may not be as foolproof.
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everyone can choose their arrival time in MDE
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Yes. I never said you can’t.
What I said is that - probably with location services - MDE is somehow notified when you’re in the area. I’ve gotten a message before to the effect of “we notice you’re not in the area yet, if your arrival time has changed please update us” when I have picked an early arrival but really am arriving ---- from outside of FL ----- later in the day by plane
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Just one data point, but checked into ASMu today, requested room for just an hr early at 2pm, knowing that’s the earliest I’d possibly get there, and got text at 1:52.
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The location access service isn’t used for room alerts. The alerts are received according to the time you selected during your online check in.
The alert you receive if your selected check in time is near but room isn’t ready is “From Disney: Welcome! Your room is not ready at this time. Please enjoy the Resort and we will send an update once it becomes available. Text STOP to cancel”
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Yes that happens too. I’ve received the room isn’t ready yet texts you describe.
But I have received a notification as I described above noting that I’ve not arrived to the area yet despite having indicated via online checkin that I would have by then. This occurred when I selected an arrival time early in the day but flew in late in the day.
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I’ve had a success rate of about 90% for a room being ready before noon. I always select 8am arrival and then check in with the front desk as well 
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My room wasn’t ready by 4 pm at Ak and I got a partial savannah view upgrade. Desk person could not get a response from housekeeping about our original designated room.
Another time I went to check bags at CSR around 9 am and was told our room was ready.