Are predicted wait times fluctuating lately? ! month out, and they dropped a lot

I just noticed that all of our projected wait times have dropped dramatically. I am about a month out. I was wondering why before it was projecting such long times at rope drop, but it seems more accurate now. I have used this site for our previous 2 trips over the last 10 years(and it worked very very well), and i was thinking that all of the data was pretty historically predictable. Is this normal to have such big time swings lately? With all of the new rules, is this data kind of fluid at the moment? I know this isnt an exact science, but a few 40 minute drops on one day is noticable, and impact how we make reservations for things like Oga’s/ droids, etc…

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Im not sure the answer but welcome to the forums!

I also noticed this and make a post about it yesterday. I feel the new wait times are too good to be true!

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I did notice on a recent blog that TP was over prediciting during spring in 2023 by more than 1 “level”. So maybe they revisited wait times for that.

But @thigpen keep in mind Mardi Gras week is in a little over a month. Expect higher wait times the weekend prior and the Monday and Tuesday of that week.

@len - do you have insight on this?

We did just update our WDW and DL predictions.

We seem to have some data late in 2023 that posted wait times seemed to overstate actual waits by a bit more than in some previous years. So as an example, for Buzz Lightyear:

  • In 2019 a 30-minute posted wait meant an actual wait of around 24 minutes
  • In 2023 a 30-minute posted wait meant an actual wait of around 19 minutes

That varies by attraction and time of day, of course. So my initial guess is that’s what you’re seeing, @thigpen. If there’s a specific attraction you’re looking at, let me know and I can ask Fred, our lead data scientist.


I’m seeing some pretty low wait times for SDMT and Peter Pan at rope drop on March 1st. Does that seem reasonable?

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Yes, that seems like a reasonable wait for 7DMT at that time of the day.

In May 2023 we did days of touring plan testing in the MK. Our actual waits at 7DMT were not over 6 minutes, even as late as 8:35 a.m.

It helps tremendously to be near the front of that rope-drop line.


Well that’s great news. Thanks for confirming @len !