What’s changed? Wait time increased on 1st attraction at RopeDrop

I had a personalised Touring Plan for the Magic Kingdom on 31st May, starting at 08:00 for an EMH day, and was planning on being at the hub before 08:00 for RopeDrop.
I inserted a 1 minute break at 08:00 to manipulate the Walk Time to our first attraction (Winnie the Pooh) which had us arriving there at 08:03, and then going on to Under the Sea, and then Small World, which would have got us to Liberty Square in time for the RopeDrop to Frontierland at 09:00. All good so far. However, I re-Evaluated the plan yesterday, as I’d made a change to a FastPass that I was using later in the day, and the Wait Time for Winnie the Pooh had shot up to 17mins (I can’t remember exactly what it was previously) which has had a knock-on effect throughout the rest of the day, as I’m now not getting to Liberty Square until 09:16, which means I’ve missed the RopeDrop for Frontierland, and now have longer waits for Big Thunder & Splash, and so on, and so on…
I know that the wait for Winnie the Pooh won’t be 17 mins at RopeDrop, so I can delete it from my plan for timing purposes but still ride it, and then continue on with my day, but my question is why would it change so drastically if there’s been no change to the crowd calendar?
I had a similar problem with another plan for Hollywood Studios on an EMH day, where I was RopeDropping R ‘n’ R, and then ToT before getting down to Star Tours before the non-EMH opening at 09:00. I can’t remember initially what time I was riding Star Tours, but after doing a re-Evaluate, it had me arriving just after 09:00, and again, from then on, coming up against ever-increasing wait times throughout the day. I ended up replanning my morning due to this, but am now wondering whether I should have just deleted one of the attractions from my plan, and carried on with it as it was in the first place?
What do other people generally do to by-pass the RopeDrop wait times on their plans? This is only my second visit to WDW, and my first attempt at using Touring Plans, so any help would be much appreciated.

I don’t have an answer but I kind of had the same issue. I had Frozen Ever After at rope drop, but the wait time was messing me up for my first FP and every time I optimized it tried to move it later, so I finally just left it where it was with a note to myself to do it first in any case. It was also moving our 12:00 lunch ADR to arrival at 12:40, which absolutely won’t work either.

I’m sure there is a way to pin attractions to a specific time, but I can’t figure it out.

They update all the crowd levels periodically, the most recent was announced today, although I’ve read where people noticed it starting a few days ago. Almost all of them went up a bit.

What I do is put my first attraction at RD in as a break, and put in the time I think it will take. You could also substitute a nearby dining venue instead, estimate the total time the ride will take and enter that under duration for the meal, and put the real attraction in the attraction notes. Then your map & walk times will be more accurate.

Of course, the earliest time you can start the break or meal is still going to be park opening time, but you could adjust the break/meal duration to compensate. Or, as you mentioned, just omit it entirely if you think you’ll be done by park opening.

The only other way I know of to pin down an attraction time is to check the box where you force it to use a FP, but that doesn’t apply to what you do at RD, though it might help for those later rides.

Do you have the “Let the Magic Begin” show in your plan? If you do, the system knows you’re in the hub at 5 mins before opening.

i leave it be, then am happy that i’m “ahead of schedule” when in the park =) Eliminates any stress of trying to stick to the plan with more fudge time built in.

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Thanks for the replies. I’ve already used the Add Meal feature for whatever is the nearest dining option in some cases such as toilet breaks. I also tried it in the Winnie the Pooh scenario from my original post, using the Cheshire Cafe, which had me arriving at 8:03 which was the same as adding a 1 minute break starting at 08:00.
Since I originally posted, I’ve also tried adding a FastPass for WtP at 08:00 to give a shorter wait time, but the system keeps rejecting it, presumably because it’s before 09:00.
I’ve also since noticed that the wait time for my 09:00 RopeDrop in Frontierland (Big Thunder) had me arriving at 09:03, but now with a 29 minute wait. I don’t know what it was before as I didn’t print a copy of the plan, but again the wait time had definitely shot up. I added a FastPass for it, which brought the wait down to a more realistic 5 minutes, which is what I’m now leaving in the plan. I’ll just have to skip one of my ‘fillers’ on the day if I find that the predicted wait times are as high as they’re coming out and I’m running too far behind.
I just find it odd that the wait times can change so drastically if there’s been no change in the Touring Plans Crowd Level…

I think there has been a change in CL, though. If you are signed up for CL alerts you should see those in the next day or so. I just got my email alert for April this afternoon, but I’m pretty sure they’ve been adjusting them all week. I’m also going in late May, and two of the days jumped by 2 points, the rest by one.

It might be that the data has changed, but the Crowd Levels haven’t been updated yet, ‘cos I checked that as well…

That could be. Other people were reporting increases in wait times all this week as well. It should all sort itself out in the next day or two.

The CL for my days did all go up (May 21-27), except the Memorial Day weekend because they were already pretty much 10’s, sadly.

That’s the weekend that we arrive - We were there over the same time on our previous visit in 2016 as well, as it coincides with our kids holidays in the UK. From what I’ve been reading about ‘how much busier the parks are nowadays’ on various forums, I’ve got to admit that I’m getting a bit worried!

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This exactly. I need the cushion.

Me, too. That Saturday we’re hitting the parks late, and on Sunday we’re staying at the resort and Disney Springs, it’s going to be insane that day.

I’ve also booked some paid upgrades in self-defense. Too bad the DAH dates were released late, I just can’t figure out how to make those work with my plans, which are a bit set in stone at this point.

We’re planning on getting to MK at around 12:30 after dropping the luggage off at the Beach Club, and staying until park close, then RopeDropping HS for EMH on the Sunday, and then the same again for AK on the Monday. I wish I could rewind to January when we booked it, and before I started making our ADR’s

Just noticed this change as well. My plan had BTMR at rope drop and then riding it again right after. The plan 3 days ago had wait time 5-6 minutes each. Now they are 25 and 28 minutes. Crowd Level stayed the same.

I put my BTMRR at RopeDrop in as a FastPass, which brought the wait down to 6mins. Riding Splash straight after, the wait is now 14mins. Seems more realistic, so that’s what I’m leaving in the plan. Will just have to change things on the day depending on how things are going.