I just noticed that Monday, November 12 is a 10 across all parks. I have never seen 10s across all parks on the Monday after Veteran’s Day weekend. Any idea what is going on or is this just a glitch?
That’s the day that Veteran’s Day is observed by many schools, employers, etc. It may also be Jersey week, but I am not 100% sure about that.
Jersey week is usually the week before. I wasn’t thinking about Veteran’s day being that Monday.
I wouldn’t normally know, but DH gets Veteran’s Day as a paid holiday so now I always know when it is. FWIW, we will be there 10/30-11/6 and CL went up by about 2 for each of our days. It seems like it was an across the board increase for most days.
3 day weekends are frequently more crowded. President’s day weekend is another that often has higher than typical crowds.
Guessing it’s the Perfect Storm™️ of Veteran’s Day and Jersey Week? However, I just cross-checked with the other guys:
Touring Plans - 10/10 - All Parks
- Undercover Tourist - 5/10
- Dad’s Guide - 2/6 “Moderate”
- Kenny the Pirate - 3/5 “Moderate”
- WDWPrepSchool - 7/10 “Influx”
@len, can you check the math on this one? November 12, 2018 - 10/10 for all 4 parks?
I’m happy to do it. What I’d like you to do first, though, is ask the folks who make those other calendars what kinds of wait times they’re expecting throughout the day at the Magic Kingdom’s “mountains” for those crowd levels.
It could be that those crowd levels match our wait times, kind of like how 100 degrees Celsius is the same temperature as 212 degrees Fahrenheit. In that case, there’s not a difference in predictions, just in scales.
If that were only the case, then it would be indicative of the numbers on Touring Plans to be less useful because while, say, UT can distinguish between a busy level of 5 versus 10, if TP is calling that same 5 a 10, then, while UT has a 6 to be more than 5, and 7 to be more than 6, TP cannot distinguish between the differences in crowdedness. This would mean that using a 10 from TP becomes less useful in comparing degrees of “really crowded” days.
I presume that isn’t actually the case, which means instead it becomes more a matter of difference in determining factors.
- Dad from Dad’s Guide says 2/6 “Moderate” is about a 60 minute wait at the mountains, rough guess. He didn’t have solid data, so that’s an estimate.
- WDWPrepSchool says “No more than 15 minutes” which can’t be right. She didn’t give me solid numbers.
- No other responses yet. Couldn’t find a way to message Kenny the Pirate directly.
Anyway, I just wanted to see if there were any factors “behind the scenes” for the 10/10, other than end of Jersey week and Veteran’s Day. I’ll plan for a 10 and perhaps be surprised!
I will admit that I was stunned by the fact that all 4 parks are 10s. Made me wonder if it was a glitch or if something big was happening outside of jersey week and Veterans Day. I’ve been to the parks plenty of times during that weekend and the only time MK was brutal was 2 years ago when they were filming the Christmas stuff for TV. I’m not knocking your stuff, but was curious if someone knew something I didn’t.
OK, so same date last year had 150-minute peak waits at 7DMT and Space, 80 at BTMRR, and was an actual 8 on our calendar.
Let’s see how the next round of crowd cal adjustments looks at this - we’ve been slightly overpredicting the MK, so that number may drop to an 8 or 9. Those should be out this week.
I would be exceptionally surprised at 15- or even 60-minute waits at the mountains, just based on last year.
It would be worthwhile to ask what the different crowd levels mean for those calendars, for each crowd level. I was always under the impression that there wasn’t a scale. The fact that you got any kind of answer is mildly surprising.
This suggests you are using those three rides to determine crowd cal. But that seems a little backwards to me. Crowds (as in, number of people in the park on any given day) is the primary indicator. Wait times for individual rides can be skewed heavily due to other circumstances. For example, if there is a day where many of the other minor rides are down or being refurbished would push up the wait times for the mountains, but the actual crowds are the same. Or you could have a day where an enthusiast group hits the park and tackles the mountains, but nothing else. So the wait times for those rides go up and other rides do not.
The actual number of people in the park, however, becomes a much better overall predictor of general park experience. To me, at least, how difficult it is for me to get from point A to point B while NOT in a queue line is far more influential about how I feel about the day than specific wait times on individual rides.
It also means that, over time, your mechanism for calculating crowds changes from year to year. So what was a 7 two years ago is not the same as a 7 this year because of a new ride, etc. Clearly, 7DMT would not have been part of crowd calculations 5 years ago. And once Tron goes in, the wait times for 7DMT will drop, but Tron will shoot up. If you drop something out of the calculation and replace it with something else, the dynamic has changed, and you are again comparing apples to oranges.
But actual numbers of people in the park? That becomes a much more consistent measurement. With more people, you would expect wait times to increase. WHICH rides increase may change depending on what’s going on. But even in the case where Disney is purposely making wait times longer during slower weeks is problematic, because just going by wait times makes it seem like that 7 the week of October 1 is the same as a 7 the week of December 20 (or whatever). But the fact is, the crowds for October 1 will be WAY less even if wait times are similar.
It might be better to call it a “wait time calendar” for TP, as compared to Crowd Calendar that other sites use. But I totally see using historical wait time data when calculating individual touring plans.
I’m not sure what data is actually available, though.
I appreciate the feedback, Ryan. You may want to read some of our blog posts, which discuss each of the points you make. Search for “crowd calendar” and look for recent posts from Steve or Fred.