Why are the crowd calendars from Lines, Kenny the Pirate and Undercover tourist so different? My goal is to avoid crowds! My last trip I used Lines only and did fine but I went at a very low crowd time anyway (early May). This year I’m going later in May and during Star Wars weekend so overall crowd level is higher. If I pick a day, lets say May 16th, Lines shows AK as a 7, Kenny says its Green and UT says green. Epcot on 5/16 Lines says 6, Kenny says Green and UT says Red!!! Who to trust?
Each crowd prediction has its own definition of what a “crowd” is along with distinct criteria and assumptions, so the results will vary
I prefer the TP Crowd Calendar because it has the best explanations of its methodology, and they are accountable for their results as they compare their estimates against actuals and publish a weekly “how did we do” summary. The TP crowds are also a measure of how long line wait times will be and not how many people are in the park, which is the measure that is more relevant to me.
I’ve often wondered this as well. We are taking a trip next month and I’m just planning on going by the TP calendar. Fore example, Kenny has the Friday we are there as a red but EasyWDW lists as a green. I’ll just stick with TP since and forums have been so helpful in my planning so my loyalty will stay here
Ha yes I think I am sticking with Lines! They haven’t steered me wrong yet!
Throw in easywdw.com to the mix and have even more fun!
Really, with rope dropand a good touring plan, actual day won’t matter as much, plus they are all predictions and anything could change (huge rain storm cancels a Thursday Fantasmic after no shows for a few days makes a Friday at Hollywood studios way more crowded, and none can predict that 6 months out.)
I don’t think there’s a good answer to whose crowd predictions are best. Touring Plans seems to take the most scientific approach, but crowd prediction is an inexact science, so they (along with all the other forecasters) are wrong some of the time. More vexing in recent months is that crowds seem to be up across the board, so what you’ve become accustomed to on a moderate crowd level day in past years may feel a lot busier this year, even though the day is still a “4” or “5” or this year’s scale.
I faced the same dilemma. In addition to the good points above, here’s my thinking:
- Lines / TPs seems the more objective. Others seems to adhere to rules like never go on EMH days
- A red day doesn’t mean it’s the wrong time to go. If you’re visiting multiple parks, you have to optimize across all days
- The science says that a good touring plan is 5x more important than picking the right day
So basically, that’s what I’m telling myself. We’ll see if it all holds true on my visit in Feb!