Wdw Fastpass Predictions

One thing I like about touring plans when planning our disneyland trip was that it estimated fastpass times for any given day. Now that we are planning a Disneyworld trip, even though I can see fastpass availability (which is great), I cant find a prediction when fastpasses will run out. Our trip is for new years week (crowded), so I want to decide whether I need to get late morning fastpasses so I can get more fastpasses during the day, or whether most fastpasses will be out by early afternoon anyhow so I should just get late night fastpasses.
Is there a way I can figure this out?

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Welcome!

I know that info is on this website, I will look but I know others have links like that saved so someone will share it I’m sure.

Welcome! Touring Plans has something from 2017. It does need to be updated but maybe this will give you a bit of insight based on crowd predictions:

This is specific to each day, but might be helpful.

https://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/fastpass-availability

This is what I use for exactly that purpose.

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I like this page to tell me what’s available for a specific day, which is great. What I’m looking for is at what specific time of the specific day the fastpass will run out, similar to how the disneyland fastpass touring plan page shows. Is that possible?

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This link is really helpful. Thanks. This might be what I’m looking for.

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Keep in mind it’s dated and there are rides that are not on here. There are SDFP’s that are dropped during the day but that’s not as reliable.

Sadly, this chart is showing me that fastpasses on 10-level days basically run out around noon. Getting fastpasses in late morning won’t really help then. It’d be cool if a 2019 version of this chart exists.

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On a level 10 day, that’s probably correct. Better to RD and ride everything you can with a good TP and schedule FP’s later in the afternoon, when lines are the worst. The lines just get longer and longer. You may also find this useful in your planning:
https://touringplans.com/magic-kingdom/crowd-levels

There are links at the bottom for the other 3 parks.

Actually that’s not the right link. If you click on each park, then you can click on wait times and go to your day. This lets you know about when you will have shorter waits. Some actually go down in the evening.

ah… i also see this updated chart: https://touringplans.com/blog/2019/07/02/fastpass-availability-at-walt-disney-world-update-4/

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@len i couldnt find this when looking through the organic ways

Hey @drvillarejos - I think the link that @rad91 posted is the most recent. Let me know if you want a stats-heavy PDF though.

Thanks for using the site!

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Yes, I found it searching the blog. I originally went under FastPass Plus info and down to obtaining more FPs. The link to see SDFP availability brings u to a 2017 chart. Would be great to have the updated one on this link as well.

This chart creates interesting nuances to FP selection.

So, for example, let’s say I’m going to MK on a CL 5 day. The “best” FPs to obtain ahead of time (at 30 days out) would APPEAR to be PPF, BTMRR, Space Mountain, and then Splash Mountain. (Talking just about rides.)

BUT, what this chart doesn’t really show is when do the EARLY IN THE DAY FPs run out for those rides. Because if, at 30 days, there are FPs available for all of those rides, it could be that the earliest available is, say, 4:00 in the afternoon. If you get the three most in demand at times of 4:00, 5:00, and then 6:00, you are locked out of SDFPs for other rides until 6:00 pm.

But if you forego getting FPs for any of those rides, and instead focus on early FP choices, you can start using same-day FPs for a lot of other rides. So, rather than save 35 minutes on Space Mountain, you might end up pulling off 6-7 FPs on “lesser rides” that save only 10 minutes each, which amounts to 60+ minutes of savings.

It becomes difficult, then, to REALLY make an informed decision as to which are the best FPs to get ahead of time.

What I will have to do is take those same four rides and see what the wait times are on our preferred days at various times to see what the potential FPP wait time savings might be to see if it is even worth it.

And, also something I’m noticing as I’m playing with my TPs for the various days…RDing the big rides is not necessarily the best use of your time!!! Sometimes RDing actually makes your wait limes LONGER.

Mostly, it looks like RDing the LESSER rides will, overall, save more time because those rides end up being practically walk-ons.

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What might be a more useful and interesting chart is not how far out FPs are available, but what is the expected average wait time saved for a given ride when using a FP versus not.

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Couldn’t you run this through different touring plan scenarios?

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Partially. The Touring Plan doesn’t really provide a means that I can see to account for time saved with likely SDFPs.

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I totally agree with you. We would get so much more done with RDing other stuff and not the headliners.

I have to do FPP reservation each day at the 60 day mark. Based on Dibbs and TP, I’m unlikely to get reservations for the headliners (7DMT, FOP, and SDD). How would you strategize getting on those rides besides RDing and praying for same day drops for FOP and SDD?